PRINCETON, NJ -- After improving slightly earlier this month, Â鶹´«Ã½AV's Economic Confidence Index declined over the past two weeks to its current -33, matching the average for all of July.
The July confidence numbers are the lowest of the year so far; thus, even with the slight uptick in early August, confidence remains below the levels seen during much of 2010 and below its depressed levels of a year ago.
"Poor" Ratings of Economy Are Near 2010 High
Forty-eight percent of Americans rated current economic conditions as "poor" during the week ending Aug. 22 -- approaching the highest levels of the year. This is marginally worse than the early August reading, is in line with the full July average of 47%, and is marginally worse than at this time in 2009.
Expectations Deteriorate
During recent weeks, slightly more consumers told Â鶹´«Ã½AV they think economic conditions are "getting worse" than thought that was the case earlier this month. These expectations for the economy basically match the average for all of July and are worse than those consumers held at this time a year ago.
Economic Confidence Worse Than a Year Ago
Â鶹´«Ã½AV's economic confidence data show consumer confidence giving up its modest gains of late July and early August during recent weeks. These declines in consumer confidence are not surprising given the downturn on Wall Street, all the talk of an economic slowdown, and the growing fears of a double-dip recession.
In turn, the decline in Â鶹´«Ã½AV's Economic Confidence Index suggests that Friday's Consumer Sentiment report is likely to show a decline from its earlier estimate for August -- but still exhibit a modest improvement compared with the average for all of July. As a result, Friday's report for the month may already be somewhat out of date even as it is released.
Â鶹´«Ã½AV's underemployment measure suggests there has been , while Â鶹´«Ã½AV's consumer spending measure shows . The stagnation in these measures, along with the decline in consumer confidence, seems consistent with another weak back-to-school season. Of course, the nation's retailers can still hope that many consumers are simply delaying their purchases until the last minute because of the current weak economy, not deciding to forgo them altogether.
Regardless, probably the most troubling aspect of the current economic confidence data is that they show no improvement from a year ago. In fact, Americans are slightly less optimistic about the future direction of the economy today than they were at this time in 2009. This is not good news for retailers or for incumbents facing re-election this November.
Â鶹´«Ã½AV.com reports results from these indexes in daily, weekly, and monthly averages and in Â鶹´«Ã½AV.com stories. Complete trend data are always available to view and export in the following charts:
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about Â鶹´«Ã½AV's economic measures.
For Â鶹´«Ã½AV Daily tracking, Â鶹´«Ã½AV interviews approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. The Â鶹´«Ã½AV economic confidence results are based on random half-samples of approximately 500 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. Weekly results are based on telephone interviews with approximately 3,000 adults.
For these results, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.
Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell phone-only status, cell phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
For more details on Â鶹´«Ã½AV's polling methodology, visit .
