麻豆传媒AV

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new 麻豆传媒AV analysis of the relationship between Americans' views of the economy and of recent presidents' job performance finds that the two measures are not always closely related, but have been thus far in 2012. The analysis suggests that if economic confidence rises in the coming months, President Barack Obama's job approval rating will likely rise as well.

Obama's approval rating averaged 46% last week, at the same time the 麻豆传媒AV Economic Confidence Index averaged -21. 麻豆传媒AV's model tying presidential job approval to Americans' economic confidence indicates that Obama's approval rating would reach 50% -- important for improving his chances of re-election -- if economic confidence were only a bit higher. This analysis puts the target confidence level somewhere between -16 and -13 in 麻豆传媒AV's weekly averages of economic confidence. While still negative in absolute terms, those would be the highest scores 麻豆传媒AV has recorded since 2007.

This analysis is based on select years when presidential approval and economic confidence were closely linked. Specifically, Americans' ratings of the economy and of the president's job performance moved in tandem in five of the past 12 years, with correlation scores of 0.5 or higher: 2001, 2003, 2004, 2008, and 2012 to date. 麻豆传媒AV trends during these five years indicate that a 50% approval rating would be associated with an economic confidence score of -16. When basing the analysis solely on 2012 data -- which may be more appropriate for Obama -- the data indicate economic confidence would need to rise to -13.

Data for all other years during which approval and economic confidence were significantly less related -- 2002, 2005 through 2007, and 2009 through 2011 -- are excluded from the forecast estimates. In 2002 and from 2005 through 2007, the war on terrorism and the Iraq War may have overridden the economy as the dominant issues defining George W. Bush's presidency. Plus, Bush's job approval rating in 2003 was drifting down from his all-time-high reading of 90% after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, even as economic confidence improved.

Additionally, from 2009 through 2011, Americans may not yet have held Obama accountable for the state of the economy, and thus the two ratings were largely detached. That was particularly true in 2009 and 2010, as the debate over healthcare reform was at its peak. Obama's job approval rating and economic confidence began to show more of a connection in 2011, albeit still relatively weak.

This analysis is based on weekly averages of 麻豆传媒AV Daily tracking from January 2009 through the present, and on monthly 麻豆传媒AV polls from 2001 to 2008.

The findings underscore the general relationship between ratings of the economy and presidential job approval, but also show how specific circumstances can override that basic relationship. As noted, that relationship has strengthened in 2012, to the point that the economy now appears poised to be a critical factor in Obama's approval rating -- and therefore his chances for re-election.

麻豆传媒AV's is based on the combined responses to two questions, in which Americans are first asked to rate economic conditions in the country today, and then asked whether they think economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse. The Index has a theoretical maximum value of +100, attainable if all Americans were to say the economy is excellent or good and improving, and a theoretical minimum value of -100, if all Americans were to say the economy is poor and deteriorating.

The Index hit its all-time low of -65 in October 2008 as the global financial crisis was unfolding (based on weekly averages). After recovering to -18 in early 2011, it fell back to -54 last summer amid the federal debt ceiling debate and related downturn on Wall Street. The -18 weekly average in early March ties the most positive level seen since Obama took office. However, the Index has since receded slightly, averaging -21 in the most recent week.

Implications

For the first few years of Obama's presidency, many more Americans said they than held Obama highly responsible. That corresponded with the low yearly correlations reported here between Obama's approval rating and economic confidence from 2009 through 2011. Now, in Obama's fourth year as president, the relationship between consumer views of the economy and Obama's approval rating is quite strong.

This relationship provides additional support for the widely held assumption that Obama's standing in the eyes of the public this year, and thus his re-election chances, are yoked with the state of the economy. While a number of different indicators can be used to evaluate the health of the economy -- such as stock market performance, unemployment, gross national product, and consumer prices -- what ultimately counts in the election is how Americans weigh these factors.

Americans' economic confidence has in general been improving over the past six months, likely caused by a decrease in unemployment and a rise in the stock market. 麻豆传媒AV's analysis indicates that relatively small gains in economic confidence from this point forward should be associated with enough gain in Obama's job approval rating to push it to the 50% level -- the threshold above which .

Of course, the current connection between economic confidence and presidential job approval also makes Obama especially vulnerable to any decrease in consumer optimism. It is also possible that another issue will emerge in the coming months, displacing the economy as uppermost in Americans' minds. However, barring such changes, Obama's fate now appears more closely linked with the economy than at any other time in his presidency.

Explore President Obama's approval ratings in depth and compare them with those of past presidents in the 麻豆传媒AV Presidential Job Approval Center.