麻豆传媒AV

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Democrats' chances of beating George W. Bush in the presidential election in November may depend on many factors, but to the extent that issues matter, fiscal management and healthcare may be the Democrats' strongest suits. Although the Democratic candidates for president have spent considerable time assailing Bush's Iraq policy -- clearly playing to their base -- Iraq as well as terrorism are solidly Republican issues, with few Americans saying they prefer the Democratic approach to these.

Other issues on which Republicans hold a perceptual edge are foreign affairs generally and gun policy. Democrats have a clear lead on the environment and education. Only four points separate the parties in perceivimed handling of the economy and taxes, but the Democrats hold the edge on both.

SUMMARY TABLE: PARTY HANDLING OF ISSUES OR PROBLEMS

 

2004 Jan 9-11 (sorted by "advantage")	Republican Party	Democratic Party	Republican Advantage/ Disadvantage
	%	%	%
Terrorism	60	30	+30
The situation in Iraq	53	37	+16
Foreign affairs	51	40	+11
Gun policy	48	39	+9
The economy	44	48	-4
Taxes	44	48	-4
Education	41	50	-9
The federal budget deficit	39	49	-10
Healthcare policy	34	55	-21
The environment	35	57	-22

Trends in Issue Ratings

The latest CNN/USA Today/麻豆传媒AV poll, conducted Jan. 9-11, asked Americans to indicate which party would better handle each of a list of 10 issues. The biggest difference occurs in terms of counterterrorism, where Americans prefer the Republican Party to the Democratic Party by a 60% to 30% margin. While not a new finding, it is notable that the Democrats have made little headway in closing this image gap over the past two years. The Republican Party's advantage on perceived handling of terrorism is nearly as high today as it was just four months after the Sept. 11 attacks, when the Republicans were preferred by 61% to 23% over the Democrats.

If terrorism is the top issue for voters come November, and if Republicans retain this wide a lead on the issue, Bush's re-election seems assured.

On the other hand, healthcare and the environment are two of the Democrats' strongest issues going into the election; the poll finds the Democratic Party receiving its widest margins over the Republicans on these issues. Democrats lead by 22 points on the environment (57% vs. 35%) and by 21 points on healthcare policy (55% vs. 34%).

Party Preference on Healthcare and the Environment

Since healthcare is often rated a top voting issue by the public, and the environment is not, it would appear that healthcare has the potential to be the more critical issue for the Democrats. A CNN/USA Today/麻豆传媒AV poll last September found 43% of Americans rating healthcare as "extremely important" to their vote, similar to the top-rated issues of terrorism and the economy (49% each), and significantly higher than the 30% who rated the environment this highly.

Also intriguing is the fact that the Democratic Party is now slightly favored on three issues related to fiscal management. Americans currently give the Democrats a 4-point edge as the party better able to handle the economy, as well as a 4-point edge on taxes and a 10-point edge on the federal budget deficit.

The weaker position of the Republicans on the deficit today is most likely a reflection of public concern about the burgeoning U.S. deficit under Bush.

Party Preference on Fiscal Issues

The Democratic lead on the budget deficit is most significant, because it represents a change from previous surveys in which the parties were at closer parity on this issue. Not since December 1992 has 麻豆传媒AV found the Republican Party lagging the Democrats by double digits in the ratings it receives on the deficit.

Party Preferred to Handle the Federal Budget Deficit

In recent years, 麻豆传媒AV has found the Republican Party often lagging behind the Democrats for its perceived handling of the economy. This was particularly pronounced shortly after Clinton beat the elder George Bush for president in 1992; at that time, the Democrats had a 29-point advantage on the economy. Democrats also had a 10-point advantage in October 1998. But after the Republican takeover of Congress in 1994, the GOP led by 21 points. And just two years ago, the Republicans led on this measure by 6 points.

Party Preferred to Handle the Economy

The Democrats have led the Republicans on taxes in the past, but only at times of considerable Democratic political strength, including 1992, when Clinton beat Bush, and from 1997 to 1998, when the economy was charging along under Clinton. Republicans previously led on this measure from 1993 to 1996, when the economy and/or Clinton's approval ratings were less strong.

That the Democrats lead the Republicans on taxes at this point, even slightly, is noteworthy given the central role tax cuts have played in Bush's economic policy, and given Bush's touting of his tax cuts in connection with recent improvements in the economy.

Party Preferred to Handle Taxes

The survey gives Bush an overall job approval rating of 59%. As would be expected from an incumbent with this relatively high approval rating, Bush dominates the race for president -- beating each of the leading Democratic contenders by 12-15 points. (A 10-point margin at the ballot box is generally considered a "landslide.") Thus, in one sense it is difficult to argue that the Democrats' advantages on healthcare or fiscal matters represent a real liability for the Republican Party at this time -- otherwise, these would be reflected in lower approval and electoral support for Bush. But the Democratic Party and its nominee for president have 10 months to change that, and these issue rankings suggest that raising the salience of healthcare and the deficit, and trying to further their advantages on the economy and taxes, could be an effective strategy.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,003 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 9-11, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

13. Do you think the Republican Party or the Democratic Party would do a better job of dealing with each of the following issues and problems? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

A. The economy

 

		Republican Party	Democratic Party	No difference/ no opinion
		%	%	%
2004 Jan 9-11		44	48	8
2002 Jan 11-14		47	41	12
2000 May 18-21		41	45	14
1998 Oct 9-12		40	50	10
1997 Oct 27-29 ^		39	45	16
1996 Oct 26-29 †		39	48	13
1994 Nov 28-29		54	33	13
1994 Oct 7-9		48	40	12
1994 Aug 15-16		45	39	16
1994 Mar 25-27		40	44	16
1994 Feb 26-28		43	45	12
1993 Dec 17-19		42	41	17
1992 Dec 4-6		28	57	15
1992 Jan 3-6		39	46	15
1991 Nov		41	44	15
1991 Sep		45	39	16
1982 Feb		34	43	23
^	Asked of half sample.
†	Based on likely voters

B. Education

 

		Republican Party	Democratic Party	No difference/ no opinion
		%	%	%
2004 Jan 9-11		41	50	9
2002 Jan 11-14		42	46	12
2001 Aug 24-26		42	47	11
1998 Oct 9-12		32	54	14
1997 Oct 27-29 ^		35	49	16
1996 Oct 26-29 †		30	59	11
^	Asked of half sample.
†	Based on likely voters

C. Foreign affairs

 

		Republican Party	Democratic Party	No difference/ no opinion
		%	%	%
2004 Jan 9-11		51	40	9
2002 Jan 11-14		56	30	14
2000 May 18-21		43	38	19
1998 Oct 9-12		42	43	15
1997 Oct 27-29 ^		46	34	20
1996 Oct 26-29 †		44	42	14
1994 Nov 28-29		57	29	14
1994 Oct 7-9		42	40	18
1993 Dec 17-19		58	28	14
1992 Dec 4-6		56	32	12
1992 Jan 3-6		57	28	15
1991 Nov		60	26	14
1991 Sep		62	22	16
1982 Feb		34	37	29
^	Asked of half sample.
†	Based on likely voters

D. Terrorism

 

	Republican Party	Democratic Party	No difference/ no opinion
	%	%	%
2004 Jan 9-11	60	30	10
2002 Jan 11-14	61	23	16

E. Healthcare policy

 

		Republican Party	Democratic Party	No difference/ no opinion
		%	%	%
2004 Jan 9-11		34	55	11
2001 Aug 24-26		33	55	12
1998 Oct 9-12		31	57	12
1997 Oct 27-29 ^		34	51	15
1996 Oct 26-29 †		32	57	11
1994 Nov 28-29		46	41	13
1994 Sep 6-7		40	43	17
1994 Aug 15-16		38	43	19
1994 Mar 25-27		34	50	16
1994 Feb 26-28		40	45	15
1993 Dec 17-19		32	53	15
1992 Dec 4-6		21	64	15
1992 Jan 3-6		27	60	13
1991 Nov		27	56	17
1991 Sep		29	54	17
^	Asked of half sample.
†	Based on likely voters

F. Taxes

 

		Republican Party	Democratic Party	No difference/ no opinion
		%	%	%
2004 Jan 9-11		44	48	8
2002 Jan 11-14		52	40	8
1996 Oct 26-29		45	41	14
1994 Nov 28-29		57	30	13
1994 Oct 7-9		48	38	14
1994 Aug 15-16		44	36	20
1994 Mar 25-27		41	41	18
1994 Feb 26-28		45	40	15
1993 Dec 17-19		46	37	17
1992 Dec 4-6		37	44	19
1992 Jan 3-6		40	44	16
^	Asked of half sample.
†	Based on likely voters

G. The federal budget deficit

 

		Republican Party	Democratic Party	No difference/ no opinion
		%	%	%
2004 Jan 9-11		39	49	12
2002 Jan 11-14		47	41	12
1997 Oct 27-29 ^		40	38	22
1996 Oct 26-29 †		42	42	16
1994 Nov 28-29		52	31	17
1994 Oct 7-9		45	36	19
1994 Aug 15-16		36	37	27
1994 Mar 25-27		37	42	21
1994 Feb 26-28		41	43	16
1993 Dec 17-19		37	41	22
1992 Dec 4-6		25	53	22
1992 Jan 3-6		41	39	20
1991 Nov		40	41	19
1991 Sep		43	33	25
^	Asked of half sample.
†	Based on likely voters

H. Gun policy

 

	Republican Party	Democratic Party	No difference/ no opinion
2004 Jan 9-11	48%	39	13

I. The environment

 

		Republican Party	Democratic Party	No difference/ no opinion
		%	%	%
2004 Jan 9-11		35	57	8
1998 Oct 9-12		27	59	14
1997 Oct 27-29 ^		26	57	17
1994 Nov 28-29		36	50	14
1993 Dec 17-19		27	56	17
1992 Dec 4-6		21	64	15
1992 Jan 3-6		32	48	20
1991 Nov		32	49	19
1991 Sep		33	47	20
1982 Feb		19	50	31
^	Asked of half sample.

J. The situation in Iraq

 

	Republican Party	Democratic Party	No difference/ no opinion
2004 Jan 9-11	53%	37	10