GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- It is clear that Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry's acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention may be one of the defining moments of the presidential campaign this year.
Here is a discussion of several key issues surrounding the speech -- from the public's perspective.
Is Kerry a "Blank Slate"?
Americans appear willing to give an opinion of Kerry when asked. The most recent 麻豆传媒AV/CNN/USA Today poll shows that only 8% of Americans said they either had never heard of Kerry or didn't know enough about him to have an opinion (55% viewed Kerry favorably, 37% unfavorably).
Also, a recent Los Angeles Times poll found that only a third of Americans say they don't know enough about Kerry to be able to make a decision on whether he would be a better president than George W. Bush -- not an insignificant number, to be sure, but certainly not a majority.
Still, it is reasonable to assume that Americans know less about Kerry than they do about Bush. Bush has been a constant presence in Americans' living rooms for 3 1/2 years; Kerry was relatively unknown outside of Massachusetts until recently.
Indeed, when pollsters have asked Americans how much they know about Kerry and Bush, the responses indicate a much greater void for the former. A recent ABC News/Washington Post poll, for example, asked voters, "How much do you feel you know about (NAME)'s positions on specific issues -- a great deal, a good amount, only some, or hardly anything?", and found that while 74% knew a great deal or a good amount about Bush's stances, only 45% said they knew a great deal or a good amount about Kerry's positions. Thus, the convention this week -- and Kerry's acceptance speech -- presumably will go a long way toward helping voters fill in the blanks in their views about the Democratic nominee.
Countering Bush's Position as Strong Leader
All available poll data show that, in the minds of Americans, Bush is viewed as a strong leader who takes positions and doesn't vary them.
Asked in the July 19-21 麻豆传媒AV/CNN/USA Today poll which candidate "does not change his positions on issues for political reasons," likely voters chose Bush over Kerry by a 52% to 30% margin. Asked who is a "strong and decisive leader," voters chose Bush by a 54% to 37% margin.
It's important to keep in mind that the poll did not ask voters if these were positive traits. Presumably, some voters could feel that willingness to change one's positions on issues could be a good thing.
Still, the Bush re-election campaign apparently believes that changing one's positions on issues is an undesirable trait. Much of the paid advertising and public commentary by Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, and other surrogates in recent months has attempted to hammer home the image of Kerry as a "flip-flopper." To the degree that the "does not change positions on issues" question measures this quality, it appears that the Republicans have succeeded.
Cultural, Ideological Issues
In addition to Kerry's image as a "flip-flopper," Republicans have attempted to drive home to voters the perception that Kerry is a liberal.
The word "liberal" appears to have taken on a fairly pejorative meaning in recent years, and Democrats themselves now prefer to use the word "progressive" instead. Indeed, our latest survey indicates that only 20% of Americans call themselves liberal. By contrast, Kerry is identified as a liberal by 46% of Americans.
At the surface, this could suggest that Kerry is out of touch with the ideological positioning of many Americans -- at least based on the public's perceptions. Still, it's important to note that -- at the other end of the spectrum -- the same recent poll shows that 67% of Americans believe Bush is conservative, while only 39% of Americans call themselves conservative. Thus, the 26-point gap between the percentage of Americans who view Kerry as liberal and who view themselves as liberal can be contrasted with a 28-point gap between the perception of Bush as conservative and the percentage of those who consider themselves conservative.
More generally, there is little question that Bush's conservative positions on various moral and values issues are in line with the majority of Americans. Americans are opposed to legalized gay marriage, opposed to an unrestricted women's right to choose, favor the death penalty, are very religious, and are very concerned about the state of moral values in this country today.
Importantly, a recent statistical analysis by 麻豆传媒AV Poll Senior Editor David Moore shows that agreement that a candidate "shares your values" is an important predictor of one's vote for president, underscoring the potential impact of any differences that voters perceive between Kerry and Bush in the area of morality and values.
Terrorism
The conventional wisdom is that Kerry's focus in his acceptance speech on assuring voters that he is capable of being a strong leader in the war against terrorism was necessary and important.
That assumption is based in part on data that continue to show handling terrorism as a clear strength for Bush. Bush gets his highest job approval rating on his handling of terrorism, and when voters were asked in 麻豆传媒AV's latest pre-convention poll to choose which of the two candidates they believe is best able to handle terrorism, Bush beat Kerry by an 18-point margin.
There are several considerations, however, that show key voters are interested in more than just terrorism and foreign policy issues:
- First, most recent polling shows that terrorism is in fact not the single most important issue for voters this year. Terrorism usually falls behind the economy, and in some polls, Iraq, when voters are asked to choose from a list of concerns.
- Terrorism is not considered to be the most important problem facing the nation today. The top problems are the economy and Iraq.
- More importantly, perhaps, is the fact that while Republicans place the greatest importance on terrorism as a campaign issue, Kerry's core Democrats and the vitally important independents do not. The latter groups are more interested in domestic issues such as the economy and healthcare.
Thus, while it is undoubtedly important that Kerry convince voters that he is, at a minimum, just as able as Bush to handle terrorism (and that Kerry is not "weak on terrorism"), it may be that spending too much time on the terrorism issue could be less productive for the Democratic senator. Additionally, despite Bush's advantage when voters are asked to choose which candidate handles terrorism best, roughly equal numbers of Americans say that Bush and Kerry are capable of handling the responsibilities that come with the job of commander in chief.
Iraq?
Almost certainly Bush's re-election probabilities would be higher had he not invaded Iraq. He gets relatively low approval ratings on handling Iraq, and a majority of Americans believe that Iraq has not been worth the cost in human lives and that the war has been a mistake.
Still, it is clear from the available poll data that Kerry has yet to take political advantage of this Bush vulnerability. For example, only 45% think that Bush has a clear plan or handling the situation in Iraq, but an even smaller 33% believe that Kerry has a clear plan for handling the situation there. Furthermore, when asked which of the two major candidates can do a better job handling Iraq, Bush edges Kerry by a 49% to 44% margin.
Thus, the data suggest that Kerry has yet to convince Americans that his approach to Iraq -- if elected -- would be that much better than Bush's.
The Economy
Despite all the focus on terrorism, Iraq, and international issues, there is no question that the economy remains a critically important issue for voters this year -- and one that Kerry can advantageously address.
- The public's rating of the economy's direction is significantly worse in states that are considered to be Democratic or battleground states than in states considered to be safe for the Republicans. In other words, the economy has a high probability of being of the most importance in precisely the states Kerry must win in order to become president.
- As noted, independent voters are more likely than Republicans to say the economy is the top problem they will consider in their presidential vote.
- There is evidence from data analysis from three key showdown states that voters' perceptions of the economy in their state is related to their propensity to vote for Kerry.
Voters currently rate the economy most positively in Florida, less so in Missouri, and least positively in Ohio. Bush is doing best in Florida and least well in Ohio -- suggesting that voters in states where the economy is perceived as doing poorly are most inclined to support a candidate other than Bush (Ralph Nader also does best in Ohio).
Kerry's Military Background
Kerry's military background was very much a part of the Democrats' convention rhetoric, including the focus on his Vietnam service in the filmed biography of Kerry at the convention, and the presence of a number of his wartime compatriots on the podium as Kerry was introduced.
Analysis of available survey data suggests that Kerry's military service is at least a modest plus. The latest poll reminded voters about Kerry's military service in the Vietnam War and asked about its impact on their votes. The results show that 27% of likely voters say they are more likely to vote for Kerry as a result of his service, while 12% say they are less likely. (The rest say it makes no difference.)
Thirty-four percent of independents likely to vote say that Kerry's military background makes them more likely to vote for him, suggesting that it will also have some effect on those who are not already voting Democratic.
Bounce Expectations
There's much discussion about expectations for the pending "bounce" Kerry should get from the Democratic convention. Both sides have strong reasons to want to set expectations in different directions. The Republicans struck first and attempted to establish expectations for a large bounce, suggesting that Kerry will end up with a 15-point lead post-convention. The Democrats responded by saying that they didn't expect much of a bounce at all.
Our historical analysis certainly shows that post-convention bounces (defined as the increase in a candidate's share of the national popular vote from polls conducted immediately before and immediately following his party's convention) vary widely -- from no bounce at all for George McGovern in 1972 to 16 points for Bill Clinton in 1992 (aided by the withdrawal of Ross Perot from the race).
We know that voters this year are more interested in this election than usual, and many -- particularly Democrats -- say they are more enthusiastic about voting. That could mean, on the one hand, that voters are already so involved that they are less susceptible to being swayed by the events of the convention -- and thus less susceptible to a convention bounce.
On the other hand, the fact that voters are paying attention could mean just the opposite -- that voters are more likely to be swayed by what happens precisely because they are involved. Plus, the evidence suggests that a significant percentage of Americans want to know more about Kerry -- meaning that they could be converted to his side if things go well for him at the convention.
The broadcast networks are giving little prime-time coverage to the convention, but it is uncertain whether that will be a factor in the impact of the conventions, given the degree to which coverage will reach Americans though cable channels, local news coverage, print, the Internet, and radio.
It's also important to realize that the size of the bounce coming out of this convention to a significant degree may depend on what actually happens. If voters perceive that Kerry's speech was extremely effective, it would mean a higher bounce, while perceptions of a dull or poorly received speech, on the other hand, could mean a more minimal bounce. And of course, the size of the bounce is partly determined by where the candidate starts before the convention. Clinton had very low support going into the Democratic convention in 1992, giving him more room to go up. Prior to the Democratic convention this year, 49% of likely voters are supporting Kerry, so there may be less available room for Kerry's support to grow.
Finally, it's important to note that the precise size of Kerry's convention bounce may be less important than Bush's bounce after the late August/early September GOP convention. The Bush campaign will almost immediately begin a major effort to whittle down Kerry's all-but-certain post-convention lead. That means one of the most important polls 麻豆传媒AV conducts this year will be after the Republican convention -- measuring the net impact of Kerry's convention, Bush's offensive during August, and the Republican convention.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,005 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 19-21, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
