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麻豆传媒AV Polls in four "showdown states" show George W. Bush with a lead among likely voters in Missouri and Ohio, John Kerry with a lead in Washington, and the two candidates essentially tied in Pennsylvania. A closer look at the data reveals that voters' perceptions of the key issues in those states are strongly related to their votes, and underscores the advantage Bush has over Kerry on the terrorism issue. 

In the four CNN/USA Today/麻豆传媒AV showdown state polls released last week*, voters were asked to choose one of four issues as most important to their votes -- the economy, terrorism, the situation in Iraq, or healthcare. In all four states, the economy rated as most important. Ohio registered voters were most likely to say the economy is the most important issue to their votes, at 39%, while about one in three registered voters in the other states said the economy was the top issue. Terrorism rates as the second most important issue in the four states, at roughly 25% in each of the states. Fewer than one in five in all the states say either Iraq or healthcare. 

Most Important Issue to Your Vote, Recent Showdown State Polls

 

	Registered Voters
	MO Sep 3-6	OH Sep 4-7	PA Sep 4-7	WA Sep 3-6
	%	%	%	%
The economy	34	39	35	33
Terrorism	25	24	26	25
The situation in Iraq	18	15	18	19
Healthcare	18	19	18	19
No opinion	5	3	3	4

Terrorism and the economy are shaping up as the two key issues this year. The latest national poll confirms this -- 32% of registered voters nationwide say the economy is the top issue, 28% say terrorism. Twenty-one percent say Iraq is the most important issue and 16% say healthcare. 

In all four states, voters give the edge to Bush over Kerry on the terrorism issue when they are asked which candidate would better handle it -- by 10 percentage points in Washington, by 19 in Ohio, by 27 in Pennsylvania, and by 29 in Missouri. Nationwide, 60% of registered voters say Bush would better handle terrorism, compared with 36% who say Kerry.

Ratings of Which Candidate Would Better Handle Terrorism,
Showdown State Polls

 

	Registered Voters
	MO Sep 3-6	OH Sep 4-7	PA Sep 4-7	WA Sep 3-6
	%	%	%	%
John Kerry	32	38	33	42
George W. Bush	61	57	60	52
SAME (volunteered)	2	1	2	2
No opinion	5	4	5	4

Kerry has an edge on the economy in three states -- Ohio (51% to 43%), Pennsylvania (51% to 43%), and Washington (55% to 41%). In Missouri, voters say Bush is better than Kerry on the economy by 49% to 44%. That partly helps explain Bush's large lead in the "Show-Me State." Kerry has a slight advantage among registered voters nationwide on the economy, 50% to 45%.

Ratings of Which Candidate Would Better Handle the Economy,
Showdown State Polls

 

	Registered Voters
	MO Sep 3-6	OH Sep 4-7	PA Sep 4-7	WA Sep 3-6
	%	%	%	%
John Kerry	44	51	51	55
George W. Bush	49	43	43	41
Same (vol.)	1	1	1	1
No opinion	6	5	5	3

Relationship of Issue Importance to the Vote

People's vote intentions in these four states are strongly correlated with their assessment of the most important issue. In fact, the patterns are remarkably consistent across the four states. Among those who say terrorism is the most important issue, Bush leads overwhelmingly. But those who say any of the other three issues is most important are more likely to vote for Kerry than Bush. 

In Missouri, registered voters who say terrorism is the most important issue support Bush by 91% to 7%. Among voters who see the economy, Iraq, or healthcare as the most important issue, Kerry leads by seven percentage points or more. 

Vote Choice and Rating of Most Important Issue, Missouri Registered Voters

 

	Terrorism	Economy	Healthcare	Iraq
Bush	91%	37	39	45
Kerry	7%	59	55	52

The same pattern holds in Washington, among registered voters who say terrorism is most important, 83% support Bush and 16% Kerry. Kerry leads by large margins among voters who say the other three issues are important.

Vote Choice and Rating of Most Important Issue, Washington Registered Voters

 

	Terrorism	Economy	Healthcare	Iraq
Bush	83%	30	20	31
Kerry	16%	66	66	64

In Ohio, registered voters who cite terrorism as the key issue support Bush by 87% to 9% over Kerry. On the other hand, Kerry leads by at least 25 points among voters who say one of the other three issues is most important. 

Vote Choice and Rating of Most Important Issue, Ohio Registered Voters

 

	Terrorism	Economy	Healthcare	Iraq
Bush	87%	35	33	34
Kerry	9%	61	58	60

And in Pennsylvania, voters for whom terrorism is most important support Bush by 90% to 7%. Kerry leads decisively among voters who say the other three issues are important.

Vote Choice and Rating of Most Important Issue, Pennsylvania Registered Voters

 

	Terrorism	Economy	Healthcare	Iraq
Bush	90%	31	31	28
Kerry	7%	61	61	65

These data underscore the advantage Bush has over Kerry on terrorism. His large lead on that issue is enough to overcome (or in the case of Pennsylvania, offset) Kerry's advantage on the other issues, except in Washington, where Kerry leads. 

However, while the relationships are strong, they do not imply that voters first decide what issue is important, and then choose the candidate. Just as partisans differ in their perceptions of the candidates, they differ to the extent they see issues as important. In all four states, nearly half of Republicans say terrorism is the most important issue. In stark contrast, only as many as 11% of Democrats in any one state (Pennsylvania) say terrorism is most important. The economy is clearly the top concern of Democrats in all four states, with at least 4 in 10 Democrats in each state choosing that issue. So while it remains the case that voters who feel terrorism is the most important support Bush by large margins, it is also the case that Republicans are most likely to say terrorism is the most important issue.

To some extent then, voters may choose an issue as most important that puts their candidate in the best light. Or, alternatively, the relationship between issues and vote choice may reflect that citizens form their views (such as about the condition of the economy) or their perspectives (such as the importance of the war on terrorism) from political elites whom they trust or identify with. Thus, these are naturally aligned.

The tables show the ratings of issue importance by party in the four showdown states. 

Most Important Issue Among Registered Voters in Missouri, by Party

Most Important Issue Among Registered Voters in Washington, by Party

Most Important Issue Among Registered Voters in Ohio, by Party

Most Important Issue Among Registered Voters in Pennsylvania, by Party

Even with the somewhat confounding effects of issue importance and vote choice, if the election centers around the terrorism issue, that would certainly be a plus for the Bush campaign. In fact, as terrorism has risen in importance in 麻豆传媒AV Polls on a variety of measures, Bush has moved from a slight deficit to Kerry to a lead. While it is not possible to say with certainty that Bush's rise in the polls results from an increased concern about terrorism, the relationship may be more than a mere coincidence.

On the other hand, if other issues -- particularly domestic issues such as the economy or healthcare --become more important, Kerry would stand to gain. So while the candidates continue to stump for votes in the key battleground states, they will also try to set the terms of the debate for the election -- one focused more on international issues such as terrorism, or one focused more on domestic issues such as the economy. Whoever wins that battle would be in a stronger position come Election Day. 

*Results are based on telephone interviews with 831 registered voters in Missouri, aged 18 and older, conducted Sept. 3-6, 2004.  For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Results are based on telephone interviews with 794 registered voters in Ohio, aged 18 and older, conducted Sept. 4-7, 2004.  For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Results are based on telephone interviews with  881 registered voters in Pennsylvania, aged 18 and older, conducted Sept. 4-7, 2004.  For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Results are based on telephone interviews with 808 registered voters in Washington state, aged 18 and older, conducted Sept. 3-6, 2004.  For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

National results are based on telephone interviews with 926 registered voters, aged 18 and older, conducted Sept. 3-5, 2004.  For results based on this sample, one can say the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.