麻豆传媒AV

PRINCETON, NJ -- 麻豆传媒AV's latest figures on the composition of the 2010 electorate suggest that, consistent with , those voting in this year's congressional elections across the country will be similar in gender, age, and education to 2006 voters. At the same time, they will be substantially more Republican in their party orientation, and more conservative than has been the case in the past several midterms.

The current and historical likely voter data reviewed here assume an approximately 40% turnout rate among national adults for each election, close to the typical turnout rate recorded in recent midterm years. (麻豆传媒AV has also calculated the 2010 congressional vote using an assumption of higher turnout.)

Specifically, 55% of likely voters in 麻豆传媒AV's Oct. 14-24, 2010, polling are Republicans and independents who lean Republican. This is higher than the Republican showing in the past four midterm elections, although not too dissimilar to the 51% found in 2002. The corollary of this is that the 40% of likely voters now identifying as Democratic is the lowest such percentage of the past several midterms.

Notably, this year's high Republican representation among likely voters stems mainly from a substantial increase in Republican-leaning independents in the likely voter pool -- now at 16% -- reflecting evident since 2009.

With respect to political ideology, the 48% of likely voters now describing their political views as conservative is slightly greater than the 42% to 45% seen in each of the prior three midterms. However, the percentage of likely voters identifying as liberal has also generally increased over this period. Both changes are consistent with .

Age, Gender, and Educational Profile of Voters on Par With 2006

Likely voters' demographic profile has shifted somewhat since 1994, with increases in the proportions of nonwhites, college graduates, and adults in the 50 to 64 and 65+ age brackets. These changes stem partly from larger societal trends associated with aging baby boomers and expanding minority populations. However, apart from these changes, the demographic profile of 2010 likely voters is in line with that of previous elections, particularly as compared with 2006 voters.

Bottom Line

麻豆传媒AV's recent tracking of the generic ballot for Congress has shown , in part because the underlying registered voter population leans Republican in its vote choice. Compared with previous elections, that tilt is an extraordinary positioning for the Republicans, who typically do no better than tie the Democrats among registered voters. The GOP's position is further enhanced by the generally strong proclivity of Republicans to turn out to vote, which .

In some important demographic respects -- namely, gender, age, and education -- 2010 midterm voters will be quite typical of past electorates. However, should the figures reported here hold through the final poll conducted this coming weekend, this will be only the second time in the last five midterm elections in which the majority of voters on Election Day were Republican in their party identification or leanings, likely exceeding the 51% found in 2002. Much of this is explained by a surge in Republican-leaning independents.

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