PRINCETON, NJ -- Hawaii shows the largest advantage for the Democratic Party over the Republican Party among U.S. states, along with the District of Columbia, in the first half of 2011. The most Republican state is Utah.
The results are based on interviews with more than 170,000 U.S. adults as part of Â鶹´«Ã½AV Daily tracking from January through June, including 1,000 or more adults in 41 states. Each state's data are weighted to be demographically representative of that state's adult population.
Nationwide, Democrats had a slight advantage in the first half of 2011 in the Â鶹´«Ã½AV tracking data, with 44% of Americans identifying as or leaning Democratic and 40% identifying as or leaning Republican.
Â鶹´«Ã½AV classifies states as being more Democratic, or more Republican, based on the difference between the percentage of state residents who identify as or lean Democratic and the percentage who identify as or lean Republican.
These figures take the partisan leanings of independents into account. This gives a truer sense of the relative strength of each party in a state, given wide disparities in the percentage of political independents. These range from lows of 30% independent identification in the District of Columbia and 31% in Pennsylvania to highs of 60% in Rhode Island and 59% in Alaska. Many states with high proportions of independents are dominated by one party electorally.
The most Democratic states are concentrated largely on the East coast -- among the top 10, only Hawaii and Illinois are not located in New England or the Mid-Atlantic region. The four most Republican states are in the West, with 5 of the top 10 coming from that region. The patterns for party affiliation by region are similar to what Â鶹´«Ã½AV finds for .
The most balanced states politically in the first half of 2011 were Virginia and Mississippi (both are evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats), Colorado (with a one-percentage-point Republican advantage), Missouri, Arizona, and Arkansas (with two-point Republican advantages), and Georgia (with a two-point Democratic advantage).
The party affiliation estimates are based on the entire state adult population, and do not necessarily reflect each party's electoral strength within a state. A state's voting electorate may be tilted slightly more to one party than the basic affiliation figures due to differences in turnout between Republicans and Democrats in the state and perhaps the strength of the respective party organizations in the state.
The full results for each state are shown on page 2.
Party Affiliation Largely Stable in 2011
Â鶹´«Ã½AV earlier this year documented since President Barack Obama took office. But the political environment appeared to stabilize between 2010 and the first half of 2011, with essentially no change in party affiliation at the national level, and little meaningful variation in the states.
North Dakota and Louisiana are two states that did show meaningful change in party affiliation during the first half of 2011. North Dakota shifted from a slight Republican advantage of 3 points in 2010 to a more substantial 18-point Republican lead in 2011. Louisiana moved from a 3-point Democratic advantage last year to a 6-point Republican advantage thus far in 2011.
But those states were the exceptions. Nine of the most Democratic states in 2010 are also among the top 10 in the first half of 2011, with California dropping out and Illinois entering. Eight of the top 10 Republican states are the same between the two time periods, with New Hampshire and South Dakota falling out of the top 10, and North Dakota and South Carolina moving in.
Implications
The first half of 2011 looked a lot like 2010 politically in the United States, with Democrats enjoying a slight advantage in party affiliation nationally. The president's approval rating between the two time periods was also stable.
But that stability may not continue in the second half of 2011, with President Obama's approval rating slipping to 44% in July and further to 41% thus far in August as the nation struggles with the national debt and weak economy.
Whether those trends continue and affect the way Americans align themselves with the political parties, and how that positions the parties heading into the 2012 elections, will become clearer in the coming months.
This story is part of a series of midyear updates on data, to be released in August on Â鶹´«Ã½AV.com. Â鶹´«Ã½AV.com will report new full-year totals in early 2012 based on all 2011 surveys.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Â鶹´«Ã½AV Daily tracking January 2-June 30, 2011, with a random sample of 177,600 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.
For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point.
Sample sizes for individual states range from lows of 363 for the District of Columbia and 505 for Delaware to a high of 17,001 for California. Margins of error for most states are ±3 percentage points or less.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phones numbers are selected using random digit dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.
Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2010 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
For more details on Â鶹´«Ã½AV's polling methodology, visit .
