麻豆传媒AV

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans' satisfaction with the way things are going and approval of the job Barack Obama is doing are below historical averages, and their economic outlook continues to be more negative than positive. Still, all of these measures are much improved from a year ago, helping the president narrowly win re-election. Also, more Americans identify as Democrats or lean Democratic than did so a year ago.

All of these factors played a part in Obama's winning a second term as president, even though Americans are still in a somewhat negative mood in an absolute sense.

The 33% of Americans satisfied is below the historical average 38% and is the lowest it has been when an incumbent successfully won re-election. It was lower in late 1979 and 1992 prior to the defeats of Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush, respectively, but was significantly higher when Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush won re-election.

麻豆传媒AV does not have as long a track record of measuring economic confidence in re-election years, though incumbents have typically won when it was in positive territory. Americans were quite negative about the economy when George H.W. Bush unsuccessfully sought re-election.

Obama's final pre-election approval rating of 52% among all adults is actually quite good for an incumbent seeking re-election. The presidents who were defeated for a second term -- Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush -- were both in the mid-30% range.

Though Obama's approval rating was rather robust, he did not enjoy as easy a victory as Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, or Bill Clinton, all of whom also had approval ratings above 50%. Part of that may be because Obama's approval rating among likely voters was a bit lower, at 49%. Obama's margin of victory in the 2012 election was similar to George W. Bush's in 2004. Bush had a 48% approval rating among all adults but a slightly higher 51% among likely voters that year.

Party Polarization Drives Improvement, but Keeps Measures Lower

Perhaps the main reasons these key measures have improved so much is because Democrats have come to view national conditions much more positively, understandable given that a Democratic president is seeking another four-year term in office. But Republicans' ratings on the same measures did not show nearly the same improvement, if any, and thus, that helped keep most of the measures below average historically.

Specifically, in 麻豆传媒AV's final pre-election tracking poll, 92% of Democrats and 6% of Republicans approved of the job Obama is doing. That 86-point gap is the highest 麻豆传媒AV has measured for any president. But the party gaps in approval of George W. Bush also exceeded 80 points in the final months before Election Day 2004.

麻豆传媒AV has also documented the in the economy this year, and the growing gap in how Republicans and Democrats view economic conditions.

And while Democrats have shown with the way things are going in the United States compared with 12 months ago -- when it was -- Republicans' views have not changed at all.

Democrats' much more positive outlook on national conditions is especially noteworthy, given that more Americans now identify as Democrats or lean Democratic than did so a year ago.

Implications

Americans are clearly more upbeat about U.S. national conditions now than they were a year ago, and even when Obama took office. However, on an absolute basis many of these measures remain low, likely because Americans' views of the way things are going in the United States are shaped so much by their partisan points of view.

But it is the improvement, rather than the overall level of satisfaction or economic confidence, that seems to have persuaded enough Americans that President Obama should have another term in office.