Story Highlights
- June's index average matched that of April and May
- Confidence higher in the first half of the month, fell in second half
- Economic outlook component remains lowest since November 2013
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Â鶹´«Ã½AV's U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaged -14 in June, the same reading as in April and May. Confidence ticked slightly higher earlier in the month -- with the index averaging -12 each of the first two weeks -- but retreated near the end, with subsequent weekly readings of -15 and -17.
As economists ponder the long-term effect of the United Kingdom's decision on June 23 to exit the European Union, Â鶹´«Ã½AV's June data show on Americans' confidence in the U.S. economy. The referendum did cause instantaneous turmoil in U.S. markets, which have since recovered, but the long-term effect of Brexit on the U.S. economy -- and by extension, Americans' confidence in it -- is unclear.
Americans' economic confidence began to slide in the first week of June before the Brexit vote and remained lower the following week, perhaps related to the anxiety leading up to the British referendum. Although the latest weekly figure is on the low end of what Â鶹´«Ã½AV recorded in 2015 and thus far in 2016, it is much higher than all monthly readings from 2008 to 2011.
Â鶹´«Ã½AV's U.S. Economic Confidence Index is the average of two components: how Americans rate current economic conditions and whether they feel the economy is improving or getting worse. The index has a theoretical maximum of +100 if all Americans were to say the economy is doing well and improving, and a theoretical minimum of -100 if all Americans were to say the economy is doing poorly and getting worse.
In June, the current conditions score registered -6, the result of 25% of U.S. adults rating the current economy as "excellent" or "good" and 31% rating it as "poor." June's result is consistent with the -1 to -7 range for this component since April of last year. Meanwhile, the economic outlook score in June remained at -22, the same as in May and the lowest this component has been since November 2013. The outlook score is based on 37% of U.S. adults saying the economy is "getting better" and 59% saying it is "getting worse."
Bottom Line
Though economic confidence overall in June was flat compared with previous months, there was movement within the month, with more positive ratings earlier in the month yielding to more negative readings near the end.
There are reasons to be optimistic for July, however. The Dow Jones industrial average regained its footing after an immediate post-Brexit drop, and some members of the Federal Reserve Board predict the British referendum decision will have little to no effect on the U.S. economy.
These data are available in .
Survey Methods
Results for this Â鶹´«Ã½AV poll are based on telephone interviews conducted June 1-30, 2016, on the Â鶹´«Ã½AV U.S. Daily survey, with a random sample of 15,162 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.
Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 60% cellphone respondents and 40% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods.
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