麻豆传媒AV

PRINCETON, N.J. -- After sinking in August from their convention highs, the favorable ratings for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton show little to no positive momentum as the campaign passes the symbolic Labor Day milestone. Clinton's current 38% favorable rating essentially ties her personal low of 37%, first reached during the GOP convention. Trump's latest rating, at 34%, is just a bit better than where he stood at the close of the Democratic convention (33%).

Today's low favorable ratings for the major party candidates mean that their unfavorable ratings are correspondingly high: 58% for Clinton and 62% for Trump. Clinton's unfavorable rating matches her campaign high, recorded during the Republican convention. Trump's is slightly below his record high, 66%, last reached in April during the competitive phase of the Republican primaries.

These trends are based on seven-day rolling averages of 麻豆传媒AV Daily tracking interviews with U.S. adults. The latest figures are based on interviews conducted Aug. 31-Sept. 6, 2016.

Both candidates' images changed slightly during the convention period in the second half of July, showing improvements during their own party's convention and declines during the other. But those changes , and neither candidate is much better off today than before the party conventions.

The following charts detail each candidate's key subgroup ratings in the first half of July, prior to the back-to-back conventions, and in the most recent seven-day tracking period of Aug. 31-Sept. 6.

Clinton's overall favorable rating is the same, at 38%. Her current ratings among men and women, all age groups, and all party groups are within a few percentage points of their pre-convention levels.

The notable exception to her subgroup stability is her favorable rating among blacks, which, at 63%, is seven points below where it stood in the first half of July. It is also her lowest weekly favorable rating among blacks this year, after occasionally dipping to as low as 65%.

	July 1-17	Aug. 31-Sept. 6	Change
	%	%	(pct. pts.)
U.S. adults	38	38	0
Men	34	32	-2
Women	43	43	0
18 to 29	34	33	-1
30 to 49	39	40	+1
50 to 64	41	38	-3
65+	39	39	0
Non-Hispanic whites	28	29	+1
Non-Hispanic blacks	70	63	-7
Hispanics	59	56	-3
Republicans	7	6	-1
Independents	30	30	0
Democrats	77	79	+2
麻豆传媒AV Daily tracking

 

Trump Still at Square One With Key Demographic Groups

Trump's current 34% rating among national adults is just slightly better than his average 32% rating in the first half of July -- the same as his average since January. At the same time, like Clinton's, most of Trump's subgroup ratings are remarkably similar to where they were before the start of the conventions -- most within two points of his July 1-17 scores. The one notable change is a five-point increase in his rating among Republicans, which helps account for his two-point overall increase in favorability between the two periods.

	July 1-17	Aug. 31-Sept. 6	Change
	%	%	(pct. pts.)
U.S. adults	32	34	+2
Men	37	39	+2
Women	27	28	+1
18 to 29	18	18	0
30 to 49	29	31	+2
50 to 64	39	43	+4
65+	42	44	+2
Non-Hispanic whites	41	44	+3
Non-Hispanic blacks	7	8	+1
Hispanics	14	12	-2
Republicans	69	74	+5
Independents	28	27	-1
Democrats	7	6	-1
麻豆传媒AV Daily tracking

 

Bottom Line

As noted previously on 麻豆传媒AV.com, the slight boost the conventions provided to the candidates' national images -- pushing Clinton's favorable rating to 43% and Trump's to 38% -- were short-lived, and neither has since picked up as the calendar moves past Labor Day. Clinton remains near her record-low favorability, with the added concern that her favorability is slumping among blacks. Trump's 34% favorable rating is better than his 2016 low of 27%, recorded in April, but remains near the 32% to 34% range seen throughout August and still lags Clinton's current rating.

Rather than offering a sign that voters are finally warming up to one candidate or the other, the latest ratings underscore the historic nature of this year's election as one featuring the since the advent of scientific polls.

Historical data are available in .

Survey Methods

The results for this 麻豆传媒AV poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 31-Sept. 6, 2016, on the 麻豆传媒AV Daily tracking survey, with a random sample of 3,561 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Results based on subgroups are associated with higher margins of error. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.

Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 60% cellphone respondents and 40% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods.

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