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PRINCETON, N.J. -- Amid the news frenzy leading up to the first general election debate of 2016, fewer U.S. adults rate themselves highly likely to vote for president than did so in September of each of the past four presidential election years. Sixty-nine percent of Americans currently rate their chances of voting a "10" on a 1-to-10 likelihood of voting scale. That is down from 76% in 2012 and 80% in 2008, the year with the highest turnout since 2000.

	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016
	%	%	%	%	%
10	74	78	80	76	69
8 or 9	14	11	9	9	11
1 to 7	10	10	9	14	18
Not sure	3	1	2	1	3
Voter turnout^	51.2	56.7	58.2	54.9	n/a
^ Based on voting age population (VAP); source: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/turnout.php; polls conducted in September of each year
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麻豆传媒AV has historically asked this question as part of a set of questions gauging likelihood to vote. Another likely voter question asks Americans how much thought they have given to the election -- quite a lot or only a little. The 72% currently giving "a lot" of thought to the race is similar to what 麻豆传媒AV recorded in September 2012, but is down from 2004 and 2008.

	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016
	%	%	%	%	%
Quite a lot	59	77	80	74	72
Some (volunteered)	8	3	4	4	2
Only a little	30	16	15	20	22
None (volunteered)	2	3	1	2	4
No opinion	1	0	0	0	0
Polls conducted in September of each year
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These figures could change between now and Election Day. However, while the percentage giving quite a lot of thought to the election usually increases by several percentage points between September and November, the percentage rating their likelihood of voting a "10" typically does not.

	2000	2004	2008	2012
	%	%	%	%
Have given "quite a lot" of thought to election
September	59	77	80	74
Final pre-election	70	84	81	78
Will definitely vote ("10")
September	74	78	80	76
Final pre-election	67	82	77	75
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Intent to Vote Sagging Among Both Major Party Groups

Democrats and independents who lean Democratic currently report giving the same level of thought to the election as they did in September 2012 (70%), whereas thought given is down slightly among Republicans and independents who lean Republican, from 81% to 75%. At the same time, intent to vote is down by a similar proportion among both party groups.

Still, by 76% to 65%, Republicans remain more likely than Democrats to say they will definitely vote -- a gap that is similar to 2012, but higher than in previous elections. Further, the 65% of Democrats saying they will definitely vote is well below their average for the prior four presidential elections (77%), whereas the 76% of Republicans saying they will definitely vote is only a bit lower than their prior average (81%).

	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016
	%	%	%	%	%
Have given "quite a lot" of thought to election
Republicans/Republican leaners	65	81	81	81	75
Democrats/Democratic leaners	57	76	80	70	70
Will definitely vote ("10")
Republicans/Republican leaners	79	81	82	83	76
Democrats/Democratic leaners	74	78	80	74	65
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One reason for the decline in Democrats' intent to vote could be the depressed percentage of young voters this year saying they will definitely vote -- now at 47%, down from 58% in 2012 and from a peak of 74% in 2008.

In contrast to the 11-point drop since 2012 in young adults' voting intention, there has been a seven-point decline among 35- to 54-year-olds and virtually no decline among those aged 55 and older.

	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016
	%	%	%	%	%
U.S. adults	74	78	80	75	69
18 to 34	60	67	74	58	47
35 to 54	77	81	81	79	72
55+	81	84	82	83	82
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Given Hispanics' lower propensity to vote due to citizenship and other issues, this recent decline in intent to vote among 18- to 34-year-olds may partly reflect the influence of the growing and disproportionately youthful Hispanic population. But even when looking only at non-Hispanic adults, intent to vote among those aged 18 to 34 has dropped substantially more than among older Americans.

	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016
	%	%	%	%	%
Non-Hispanic U.S. adults	75	79	81	79	73
18 to 34	61	66	76	62	51
35 to 54	78	81	81	81	78
55+	82	84	83	86	83
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Bottom Line

While Americans are giving a similar level of thought to the presidential election compared with previous years, the percentage saying they are certain they will vote is lagging, particularly among young adults. This likely reflects the persistently poor images of both major party nominees, as well as Hillary Clinton's difficulty in winning over the young adults who than toward her when Sanders was running for the Democratic nomination. Thus, while the debates could attract record audiences and the election is sure to dominate news coverage for the next several weeks, as long as Clinton and her Republican rival, Donald Trump, remain unpopular, voter turnout -- particularly among younger Americans -- may suffer.

Historical data are available in .

Survey Methods

Results for this 麻豆传媒AV poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 14-18, 2016, with a random sample of 1,033 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.

Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 60% cellphone respondents and 40% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods.

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