Â鶹´«Ã½AV's latest analysis suggests that Republicans are slightly ahead of Democrats in terms of anticipated turnout in the midterm congressional elections. The voting intentions of the smaller pool of likely voters are now four points more Republican than the voting intentions of the larger pool of all registered voters. This is a typical finding. The GOP usually has a turnout edge in midterm congressional elections.
Throughout most of the campaign this year, Democrats have expressed a higher level of enthusiasm about voting than have Republicans. In recent months, Democrats have had at least a seven-point advantage on this measure, and in the Nov. 2-5 poll, the Democratic "enthusiasm" edge has grown to nine points. By way of comparison, Republicans had a significant advantage on this enthusiasm measure in October 1994 before the election in which they gained 53 seats. (However, this enthusiasm measure has not proven to always be an effective predictor of turnout in past elections.)
How much thought have you given to the upcoming elections for Congress -- quite a lot, or only a little?
|
Quite |
SOME |
Only |
|
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2006 Nov 2-5 |
50 |
5 |
38 |
6 |
1 |
|
2006 Oct 20-22 |
44 |
6 |
43 |
6 |
1 |
|
2006 Oct 6-8 |
38 |
4 |
50 |
7 |
1 |
|
2006 Sep 15-17 |
34 |
5 |
53 |
8 |
1 |
|
2006 Jun 23-25 |
37 |
4 |
56 |
3 |
* |
|
2006 Apr 7-9 |
25 |
3 |
66 |
5 |
1 |
Compared to previous elections, are you more enthusiastic about voting than usual, or less enthusiastic?
Trend for Mid-Term Elections
|
More |
Less |
|
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
National Adults |
||||
|
2006 Nov 2-5 |
46 |
36 |
16 |
3 |
|
2006 Oct 6-8 |
43 |
46 |
10 |
1 |
|
2006 Sep 7-10 |
42 |
46 |
10 |
2 |
|
2006 Aug 18-20 |
39 |
43 |
16 |
3 |
|
2006 Jun 23-25 |
50 |
36 |
13 |
1 |
|
2006 Apr 28-30 |
44 |
42 |
13 |
1 |
|
2006 Apr 7-9 |
40 |
46 |
12 |
2 |
|
2006 Jan 6-8 |
45 |
39 |
14 |
1 |
|
2002 Oct 31-Nov 3 |
38 |
45 |
14 |
3 |
|
1998 Oct 29-Nov 1 |
37 |
46 |
14 |
3 |
|
1998 Oct 23-25 |
35 |
47 |
16 |
2 |
|
1998 Oct 9-12 |
35 |
47 |
16 |
2 |
|
1998 Aug 21-23 |
38 |
41 |
17 |
4 |
|
1998 Apr 17-19 |
30 |
48 |
19 |
3 |
|
1994 Nov 2-6 |
38 |
48 |
13 |
2 |
|
1994 Oct 7-9 |
34 |
46 |
18 |
2 |
|
Republicans/Republican Leaners |
||||
|
2006 Nov 2-5 |
44 |
36 |
18 |
2 |
|
2006 Oct 6-8 |
39 |
47 |
14 |
* |
|
2006 Sep 7-10 |
40 |
47 |
11 |
1 |
|
2006 Aug 18-20 |
36 |
40 |
22 |
2 |
|
2006 Jun 23-25 |
43 |
35 |
21 |
* |
|
2006 Apr 28-30 |
38 |
46 |
15 |
1 |
|
2006 Apr 7-9 |
33 |
47 |
18 |
2 |
|
2006 Jan 6-8 |
47 |
32 |
20 |
1 |
|
2002 Oct 31-Nov 3 |
42 |
42 |
15 |
1 |
|
1998 Oct 29-Nov 1 |
39 |
46 |
14 |
1 |
|
1998 Oct 23-25 |
44 |
39 |
16 |
1 |
|
1998 Oct 9-12 |
45 |
36 |
17 |
2 |
|
1998 Aug 21-23 |
42 |
39 |
17 |
2 |
|
1998 Apr 17-19 |
31 |
48 |
19 |
2 |
|
1994 Nov 2-6 |
44 |
44 |
11 |
1 |
|
1994 Oct 7-9 |
40 |
42 |
18 |
* |
|
Democrats/Democratic Leaners |
||||
|
2006 Nov 2-5 |
53 |
33 |
12 |
2 |
|
2006 Oct 6-8 |
48 |
43 |
7 |
1 |
|
2006 Sep 7-10 |
47 |
42 |
9 |
2 |
|
2006 Aug 18-20 |
46 |
43 |
9 |
2 |
|
2006 Jun 23-25 |
56 |
35 |
8 |
1 |
|
2006 Apr 28-30 |
50 |
37 |
12 |
1 |
|
2006 Apr 7-9 |
48 |
43 |
8 |
1 |
|
2006 Jan 6-8 |
48 |
44 |
7 |
1 |
|
2002 Oct 31-Nov 3 |
38 |
46 |
13 |
3 |
|
1998 Oct 29-Nov 1 |
39 |
44 |
15 |
2 |
|
1998 Oct 23-25 |
32 |
51 |
16 |
1 |
|
1998 Oct 9-12 |
41 |
45 |
13 |
1 |
|
1998 Aug 21-23 |
37 |
41 |
18 |
4 |
|
1998 Apr 17-19 |
31 |
48 |
19 |
2 |
|
1994 Nov 2-6 |
35 |
50 |
14 |
1 |
|
1994 Oct 7-9 |
29 |
50 |
18 |
3 |
|
Registered Voters |
||||
|
2006 Nov 2-5 |
49 |
33 |
16 |
1 |
|
2006 Oct 6-8 |
45 |
44 |
10 |
1 |
|
2006 Sep 7-10 |
44 |
44 |
10 |
1 |
|
2006 Aug 18-20 |
42 |
40 |
16 |
2 |
|
2006 Jun 23-25 |
49 |
36 |
14 |
1 |
|
2006 Apr 28-30 |
46 |
39 |
14 |
1 |
|
2006 Apr 7-9 |
42 |
44 |
13 |
1 |
|
2006 Jan 6-8 |
46 |
37 |
15 |
1 |
|
2002 Oct 31-Nov 3 |
41 |
42 |
15 |
2 |
|
1998 Oct 29-Nov 1 |
41 |
43 |
15 |
1 |
|
1998 Oct 23-25 |
37 |
44 |
18 |
1 |
|
1998 Oct 9-12 |
45 |
38 |
16 |
1 |
|
1998 Aug 21-23 |
39 |
39 |
19 |
3 |
|
1998 Apr 17-19 |
31 |
47 |
20 |
2 |
|
1994 Nov 2-6 |
40 |
45 |
14 |
1 |
|
1994 Oct 7-9 |
34 |
44 |
20 |
2 |
How motivated do you feel to get out and vote this year -- extremely motivated, very motivated, somewhat motivated, not too motivated or not at all motivated?
|
Extremely motivated |
Very motivated |
Somewhat motivated |
Not too motivated |
Not at all motivated |
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
National Adults |
||||||
|
2006 Oct 20-22 |
45 |
25 |
15 |
5 |
9 |
1 |
|
2006 Sep 15-17 |
39 |
25 |
21 |
7 |
7 |
1 |
|
2006 Jun 23-25 |
44 |
27 |
19 |
5 |
5 |
* |
|
2002 Oct 3-6 |
30 |
25 |
23 |
10 |
11 |
1 |
|
1998 Oct 29-Nov 1 |
28 |
25 |
25 |
9 |
12 |
1 |
|
1998 Oct 23-25 |
28 |
23 |
26 |
10 |
12 |
1 |
|
1998 Oct 9-12 |
27 |
26 |
28 |
9 |
9 |
1 |
|
1998 Sep 23-24 |
31 |
30 |
22 |
8 |
8 |
1 |
|
Republicans |
||||||
|
2006 Oct 20-22 |
50 |
28 |
14 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
|
2006 Sep 15-17 |
42 |
28 |
21 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
|
2006 Jun 23-25 |
44 |
30 |
19 |
5 |
* |
1 |
|
2002 Oct 3-6 |
37 |
28 |
19 |
10 |
5 |
1 |
|
1998 Oct 29-Nov 1 |
31 |
28 |
26 |
7 |
7 |
1 |
|
1998 Oct 23-25 |
36 |
31 |
20 |
7 |
5 |
1 |
|
1998 Oct 9-12 |
31 |
28 |
26 |
9 |
4 |
2 |
|
1998 Sep 23-24 |
40 |
33 |
17 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
|
Independents |
||||||
|
2006 Oct 20-22 |
34 |
26 |
18 |
7 |
15 |
* |
|
2006 Sep 15-17 |
33 |
23 |
25 |
7 |
12 |
1 |
|
2006 Jun 23-25 |
37 |
24 |
23 |
7 |
9 |
* |
|
2002 Oct 3-6 |
22 |
25 |
25 |
10 |
17 |
1 |
|
1998 Oct 29-Nov 1 |
20 |
23 |
24 |
11 |
20 |
2 |
|
1998 Oct 23-25 |
19 |
18 |
31 |
12 |
19 |
1 |
|
1998 Oct 9-12 |
22 |
26 |
28 |
10 |
14 |
* |
|
1998 Sep 23-24 |
22 |
27 |
23 |
12 |
14 |
2 |
|
Democrats |
||||||
|
2006 Oct 20-22 |
53 |
23 |
14 |
5 |
4 |
1 |
|
2006 Sep 15-17 |
44 |
23 |
18 |
9 |
5 |
1 |
|
2006 Jun 23-25 |
49 |
28 |
15 |
3 |
5 |
* |
|
2002 Oct 3-6 |
31 |
24 |
25 |
9 |
10 |
1 |
|
1998 Oct 29-Nov 1 |
32 |
25 |
26 |
7 |
9 |
1 |
|
1998 Oct 23-25 |
33 |
23 |
27 |
8 |
8 |
1 |
|
1998 Oct 9-12 |
28 |
25 |
29 |
9 |
7 |
2 |
|
1998 Sep 23-25 |
32 |
30 |
25 |
7 |
5 |
1 |