WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Â鶹´«Ã½AV’s Economic Confidence Index registers -35 in July, stable compared with the past two months and consistent with the longer trend of negative public sentiment about the current and future American economy.
Â鶹´«Ã½AV’s Economic Confidence Index did show improvement between November and March, gaining 20 points, but since then has slid back to where it was in December 2023. During President Joe Biden’s term, confidence has slumped to as low as -58 in June 2022 amid soaring inflation, the worst reading since the Great Recession in 2008 and early 2009.
Â鶹´«Ã½AV’s Economic Confidence Index summarizes Americans’ evaluations of current economic conditions (as excellent, good, only fair or poor) and their outlook for the economy (whether they believe it is getting better or worse).
The index has a theoretical range of +100 (if all Americans rate current conditions as excellent or good and say the economy is getting better) to -100 (if all Americans rate the economy as poor and say it is getting worse). In Â鶹´«Ã½AV’s trend of these measures since 1992, the highest ECI score was +56 in January 2000, and the lowest was -72 in October 2008.
The latest results are from a July 1-21 Â鶹´«Ã½AV poll, which was conducted after the federal government announced positive news on inflation, reporting that the Consumer Price Index fell in June. This marked the first month-to-month decline in consumer prices in four years. While this showed some economic progress, unemployment also ticked up in June, and the housing market continued to see high prices and persistently high mortgage rates. Ultimately, the cumulative effects of inflation in recent years are still evident in the 13% of Americans this month naming the high cost of living or inflation as the most important problem facing the country.
Nearly Half of Americans Rate Current Conditions as “Poor”
Forty-six percent of Americans describe the current U.S. economic conditions as “poor,” making it the dominant response for the 29th straight month.
Twenty-two percent of Americans describe current conditions as “excellent” or “good,” down three percentage points from June, while 32% say they are “only fair.”
The index’s current conditions component (the percentage rating conditions as excellent or good minus the percentage rating them poor) remains stable at -24, essentially unchanged from -23 in June.
Few Americans Predict Economy Will Get Better
Americans have also been consistently more negative than positive since May 2021 in their assessments of the economy’s trajectory.
This month, seven in 10 Americans (70%) believe the economy is “getting worse,” while 24% say it is “getting better." This is slightly more negative than last month’s 26% “getting better” and 69% “getting worse” division of attitudes.
This month’s economic outlook ratings result in a -46 net optimism score (% getting better minus % getting worse), three points more negative than last month (-43) and the lowest since last November’s -49.
Inflation Trails Immigration and Government as Top Problem
The economy and inflation are among the top issues Americans think of when asked to name the most important problem facing the U.S., with 13% mentioning each in July. On an individual basis, these trail mentions of poor government (26%) and immigration (19%). However, a combined 33% name at least one economic issue, including inflation, the economy, unemployment, wages, and taxes, among others.
Summary of Overall Trends Just Over Halfway Through 2024
- The first seven months of 2024 showed less negative economic confidence compared with late 2023.
- The ECI peaked at -20 in March but then declined to slightly below December’s confidence level, where it has stayed since May.
- Forty-six percent of Americans describe the current U.S. economic conditions as “poor,” making this the dominant perception for over two years.
- For the first seven months of 2024, between 60% and 70% of Americans have perceived that the economy was getting worse.
- While the individual economic issues are significant, topics like poor government and immigration have drawn more concern from Americans in January through July.
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