WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Â鶹´«Ã½AV’s initial measure of Americans’ 2024 holiday spending intentions finds consumers planning to spend an average of $1,014 on Christmas or other holiday gifts. This is substantially more than their forecast of $923 at the same time last year, signaling that the 2024 holiday shopping season could be a bit kinder to U.S. retailers.
According to the National Retail Federation, holiday sales have increased by an average of 3.9% over the past 18 years. In most years, the increase in sales has fallen within one to two percentage points of that average, although there have been a few extreme highs and lows, including a 13.5% increase in sales in 2021 and a 4.7% decrease in 2008. Last year was an average year, with 3.9% sales growth.
The average amount Americans anticipate spending on gifts this season reflects 38% saying they will spend $1,000 or more -- on the high end for recent years -- while a fairly steady 23% plan to spend between $500 and $999. Less than a third (31%) now plan to spend less than $500, a figure that includes 7% saying they’ll not spend anything.
Higher Share of Consumers Also Say They’ll Be Spending More
The Oct. 1-12 poll also updated Americans’ perceptions of whether the amount they expect to spend on gifts will be higher, the same as or lower than what they spent the year before. The results reinforce that retailers could see strong holiday sales this year.
The majority of Americans almost always say they will spend the same amount as the prior year, and that’s the case in the latest poll. However, today’s 52% saying their spending will be the same is below the long-term average of 60%, while the 20% saying they will spend more is significantly higher than the average of 14%. Meanwhile, the 25% saying they will spend less is on par with prior years.
Spending Intentions Promising, but Preliminary
Americans’ apparent eagerness to splurge this holiday season could reflect greater consumer comfort with their finances as inflation has declined to the lowest level since early 2021. The poll was conducted after the close of the third quarter, when inflation averaged less than 3%, getting close to the Federal Reserve Board’s 2% target for low inflation.
Whether consumers’ spending plans hold up through the holidays is another question. Â鶹´«Ã½AV typically measures Americans’ holiday spending intentions again in November, and in 12 out of 16 years for which both readings were taken, the November figure has been lower than October’s, possibly a sign of consumers getting cold feet as the season progresses.
Still, from U.S. retailers’ vantage point, consumers’ current mindset represents a promising starting position for the holiday shopping season. Should Americans’ spending intentions remain high in November, that would bode well for 2024 retail sales, coming in well above the merely average sales growth seen last year.
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