This article is the first in a series based on Â鶹´«Ã½AV’s latest surveys in Ukraine. In 2023 and 2024, some occupied territories with entrenched Russian control were excluded because of lack of coverage by Ukrainian mobile operators. The exclusion represents approximately 10% to 12% of the population.
LONDON -- After more than two years of grinding conflict, Ukrainians are increasingly weary of the war with Russia. In Â鶹´«Ã½AV’s latest surveys of Ukraine, conducted in August and October 2024, an average of 52% of Ukrainians would like to see their country negotiate an end to the war as soon as possible. Nearly four in 10 Ukrainians (38%) believe their country should keep fighting until victory.
Ukrainians’ current attitudes toward the war represent a decisive shift from where they stood after it began in late February 2022. Surveyed in the months after Russia launched its full-scale invasion, Ukrainians were defiant, with 73% preferring fighting until victory.
In 2023, support for fighting until victory slipped, but more than twice as many Ukrainians favored a continued fight (63%) over a negotiated peace (27%). Fatigue has intensified this year, with support for negotiated peace rising to 52%, the first time it has reached a majority.
Rising fatigue with the war comes at a time when its immediate future is in question. Russia has made military inroads on the front line in recent months, despite Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's "victory plan" to end the war, which includes joining NATO and using Western long-range missiles against Russian territory, also received mixed reactions from Western allies when presented last month -- overlapping the timing of Â鶹´«Ã½AV's October fieldwork. In the past few days, outgoing President Joe Biden has given Ukraine the green light to strike inside Russia using long-range U.S. missiles.
Further, the prospect of now-President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House may have created uncertainty about the ongoing provision of military and monetary aid. Since the war began, the United States has given more military aid than any other country to Ukraine.
Support for Continued Fight Dips Across Country
Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022, the front line of the conflict has remained mostly in the country’s East and South. In 2022, these same regions most exposed to the conflict were least likely to want to keep fighting it, although majorities supported it (63% and 61%, respectively).
Over time, support for continuing the war has withered in all regions in Ukraine, no matter how close to the front line they are. Support has dipped below 50% everywhere in 2024.
Some of the biggest declines in support for the fight have been in regions far from the front line, including Kyiv (down 39 percentage points) and the West (down 40 points). Among Ukrainians living in the country’s East, more than twice as many people now want the war to end as soon as possible (63%) rather than continue (27%).
Ukrainians Open to Territorial Concessions to End War
A fair share of Ukrainians who favor negotiating a quick end to the war believe Ukraine should be open to ceding some territory in exchange for peace. More than half of this group (52%) agrees that Ukraine should be open to making some territorial concessions as part of a peace deal to end the war, while 38% disagree and another 10% don’t know. Â鶹´«Ã½AV did not ask more details about the level of territorial concessions that people would be open to.
Even among Ukrainians who favor fighting until their country wins the war, there is evidence that how they conceive of “victory” is shifting. In 2022 and 2023, the vast majority (92% and 93%, respectively) of Ukrainians who favored continuing to fight believed victory meant regaining all territory lost since 2014, including Crimea. While still a clear majority in 2024, this figure has slipped to 81%.
EU, U.K. Favored More Than U.S. in Negotiating Peace
Â鶹´«Ã½AV asked Ukrainians who favor a quick negotiated end to the war about their views toward foreign powers in helping bring this about. Most want countries of the EU (70%) and the United Kingdom (63%) to play significant roles in potential peace negotiations, more so than the U.S. under either a Trump or Kamala Harris presidency.
In surveying done before the U.S. election, there was little meaningful difference in views between potential Harris and Trump presidencies. Roughly half of Ukrainians who favored peace wanted the U.S. to play a significant role in potential peace negotiations. Trump has repeatedly called for the war to end, and said he would work to do so quickly as president.
Bottom Line
After more than two years of little movement on the battlefield, the future of the war in Ukraine looks deeply uncertain. On the front lines of the conflict, Russia has been making steady progress in recent months. And in the corridors of power overseas, changing political realities may soon alter Ukraine’s ability to sustain the fight. Across the whole of Ukraine, people are increasingly weary of the war and looking for a quick peace agreement, even if it means conceding some territory.
In September, Zelenskyy said the end to the war is closer than many people think. A significant number of Ukrainians may hope his prediction is correct.
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