GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Employee confidence increased sharply in November, according to the Employee Outlook Index -- a joint effort of UBS and The Â鶹´«Ã½AV Organization. The Index increased 10 points from 61 in October to its current level of 71 in November. This is the biggest change in the Index this year, and essentially puts employee confidence back at its April benchmark of 72.
| Â鶹´«Ã½AV / UBS Employee Outlook Index |
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Perceptions of Present Company Conditions Improve
All three dimensions of the Employee Outlook Index increased in November. The Present Company Conditions Index increased 11 points from 75 in October to its current level of 86 in November. This also places employee perceptions of how their companies are currently doing in the marketplace close to their April high point of 89.
| Present Company Conditions Index |
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Expectations of Future Company Conditions Improve
Employees not only rate the current business conditions for their companies close to their high point (since the Index was initiated in April), but also rate the prospects for their companies over the next six months at such a high point. The Future Company Conditions Index increased to 76 in November. This is up 16 points from October (60) and exceeds its April high (74).
| Future Company Conditions Index |
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Job Security Drops Slightly
The Job Security dimension of the Employee Outlook Index increased in November to 52 from 48 in October. As is the case with the other dimensions of the Index, this places the Job Security Index at essentially its April (52) and May (53) high points for the year.
| Job Security Index |
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Key Points
The Employee Outlook Index was created in an effort to provide us with another window into how the U.S. economy is performing. The November reading of this new Index suggests that employee confidence at private sector for-profit companies surged upward during the month of November and is now back at its April levels. This stands in sharp contrast to consumer and investor confidence that has shown a modest improvement at best in November and remains at very low levels.
Of course, it is not unreasonable to find that those individuals currently employed in the private sector are more optimistic about their companies than are consumers or investors about the overall economy. Whether this increase in employee optimism as reflected by the new Employee Outlook Index is a leading indicator suggesting that overall economic conditions are getting better or not is yet to be determined.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 599 adults, aged 18+, who are employed with non-governmental, for-profit companies with five or more employees, conducted Nov. 11-14, 2002, Nov. 22, 2002, and Nov. 25-26, 2002. For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
