麻豆传媒AV

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ – Black Americans are much less likely to support the current war against Iraq than they were to support the 1991 Persian Gulf War. Other groups whose support for the current conflict is dramatically lower include ideological liberals, political independents, low-income households, and 18-29 year olds. Aside from political independents, these groups tend to be Democratic in their political orientation. A special statistical analysis of the data shows that, as today, support for the 1991 conflict was most strongly related to presidential job approval. While race, partisanship and political ideology were all important factors then as now, the effect of race is much stronger today than in 1991.

Support For The War By Group, 1991 Versus 2003

A 麻豆传媒AV analysis published last week explored support for the current war with Iraq among demographic groups, finding support lowest among blacks and liberals, and highest among Republicans, conservatives and men. Those same patterns generally held in 1991, although overall support may have been slightly higher in 1991 than it is now. Currently, about 7 in 10 Americans say they "favor the war with Iraq." Back in 1991, about 8 in 10 approved of the "U.S. decision to go to war with Iraq in order to drive the Iraqis out of Kuwait."

Given differences in question wording, one cannot necessarily conclude that support for the war is lower now than it was in 1991. The 1991 question included a reason for the United States' taking military action ("to drive the Iraqis out of Kuwait"), while the 2003 question does not. Some other polling organizations' questions give a reason for military action, and find current support running in the high 70% range. However, other measures with identical question wordings asked in both years, such as presidential approval and approval of the president's handling the situation in Iraq, were also about 10 percentage points higher in 1991 than today.

As such, it is possible to compare the 1991 and 2003 support numbers at the outset of each war to illustrate where differences in support lie between the two conflicts.

The following table details the differences in support by group between the previous war with Iraq and the current situation. Keep in mind that some of the differences between 1991 and 2003 may be due to question wording, and as a result the figures may not be directly comparable:

Support for U.S. Wars with Iraq by Group, 1991 and 2003

 

Group	% Favor, 2003	% Approve, 1991	Difference between 2003 and 1991
Overall	72	81	-9
Men	78	86	-8
Women	66	76	-10
White	78	83	-5
Black	29	59	-30
18-29 years old	66	82	-16
30-49 years old	75	84	-9
50-64 years old	69	83	-14
65 years and older	73	71	+2
Reside in east	66	79	-13
Reside in Midwest	73	80	-7
Reside in south	71	85	-14
Reside in west	77	81	-4
Less than H.S. education	67	76	-9
High School Graduate only	73	83	-10
Some college education	77	83	-6
College graduate	65	80	-15
Income less than $30,000	58	77	-19
Income $30,000-$49,999	79	85	-6
Income $50,000 and over	77	86	-9
Conservative	84	90	-6
Moderate	70	77	-7
Liberal	44	72	-28
Republican	93	92	+1
Democrat	66	79	-13
Independent	53	73	-20
Children under 18	76	84	-8
No children under 18	70	79	-9

Among the key findings:

• The biggest single shift in war support among the groups analyzed is for blacks, whose support for the current war effort (29%) is less than half what it was in 1991 (59%). By comparison, whites have shown just a modest drop in support.

• Men and women show about an equal decline in support between the two wars – 8 points for men and 10 points for women, comparable to what is observed for the nation as a whole

• Older Americans – those age 65 and older – are one of the few groups that show no decline in support between the two wars. Seventy-three percent of older Americans support the current war, compared with 71% support for the previous war with Iraq.

• Each of the remaining age groups shows significantly lower support for the current conflict, with the largest drop among 18-29 year olds (82% in 1991 compared with 66% now). Americans between the ages of 50 and 64 show a 14-point decline, from 83% support in 1991 to 69% today.

• In 1991, there were essentially no differences in support by region. Today, residents in the east show somewhat lower support, and residents in the west show somewhat higher support. But, in all regions support is lower compared with the 1991 levels.

• Among educational groups, the largest change in support (15 percentage points) is seen among college graduates. This group includes Americans with a post-graduate education, who have been among the least supportive groups of the current military action in Iraq (college graduates with no post graduate education have been among the more supportive groups). In 1991, 麻豆传媒AV did not distinguish between American college graduates who did and did not have any post-graduate education, so a comparison of post-graduates in 1991 and 2003 is not possible.

• Americans in low-income households show decidedly less support for the current war with Iraq than for the previous one. Just 58% of Americans whose household income is $30,000 or less now favor the war with Iraq, compared with 77% approval of the decision to go to war with Iraq in 1991.

• Among ideological groups, liberal support for the current war is dramatically less than it was for the last Persian Gulf War, 44% compared with 72%. Conservatives' support levels are only slightly lower currently (84%) than in 1991 (90%).

• Republicans show essentially no change in support between the current and past Iraqi conflicts (93% for the current conflict and 92% for the previous one). Democrats show a decline of 13 percentage points, from 79% to 66%. Political independents show an even larger decline, from 73% to 53%.

In 1991, 91% of Americans who approved of the elder George Bush as president approved of the decision to send troops to the Persian Gulf to drive the Iraqis out of Kuwait. That compares with just 29% approval among those who disapproved of the president. In the current conflict, 93% of those who approve of George W. Bush favor the war with Iraq, while just 20% of those who disapprove of him favor the war. Previous 麻豆传媒AV analysis has shown that support for the war was strongly related to approval of George W. Bush as president, and in fact presidential approval made the greatest independent contribution to support for the war.

Presidential Job Approval, Race Most Strongly Related to War Views

Many of the groups that are showing less support for the current war – blacks, liberals, low-income households, more highly educated people -- generally come from a Democratic or liberal political persuasion. In a previous article, a 麻豆传媒AV statistical analysis showed that taking into account many possible factors related to war approval, the president's job rating was most strongly related to support for the war, followed by race, ideology and partisanship. A similar analysis of the 1991 data reveals essentially the same results – the most important predictors of support for the war in 2003 are generally the most important predictors of support for the war in 1991.

In both years, presidential approval far and away shows the strongest independent relationship to support for the war, taking into account the effect of other variables. However, presidential approval seems to have had an even greater impact in 1991 than it does in 2003. For the first war, the likelihood of approving of the decision to go to war with Iraq was 25 times higher among those who approved of the elder George Bush as president than among those who disapproved. For the current war, the likelihood of favoring the war is about 7 times greater among those who approve than among those who disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president.

One notable difference in the correlates of support concerns race, which has a substantially greater independent effect on war attitudes now than it did in 1991. Today, blacks are nearly five times more likely than non-blacks to oppose the war, on average, taking into account the effect that other variables have on war support. In 1991, blacks were only twice as likely as non-blacks to oppose the war. Partisanship and ideology, important factors today and in 1991, were slightly more important than race in determining one's view on the war in 1991, even though they were less strongly related to support for the war than they are currently.

The following table shows the average increase in likelihood of favoring the war for each of the variables tested, in each year, with the variables ordered according to the strength of their influence in 2003. Figures around 1.0 (or –1.0) indicate no difference in likelihood, while numbers further away from 1.0 indicate increasing likelihood. Negative numbers indicate increased likelihood of opposing the war.

Variable	Relevant Comparison(s)	Increased Likelihood of Favoring War, 2003	Increased Likelihood of Approving of War, 1991
Presidential Approval	Approve vs. Disapprove	7.1	25.2
Race	Black vs. Non-Black	(-4.8)	(-2.0)
Ideology	Conservative vs. Liberal	3.6	2.8
	Moderate vs. Liberal	1.8	1.4
Party Identification	Republican vs. Democrat	3.4	2.8
Income	Less than $30,000 vs. All others	(-3.0)	(-2.5)
Gender	Male vs. Female	1.9	1.4
Education	Postgraduate vs. All others	(-1.4)	--
	High school or less vs. All others	(-1.4)	--
	College graduate vs. All others	--	(-1.2)

Note: When taking into account the effect of other variables, age and region no longer show meaningful differences, and so are not included in the table. Statistics shown are the odds ratios found when using a logistic regression with opinion on the war as the dependent variable.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with combined randomly selected national sample of 2,028 adults, 18 years and older, conducted March 22-23 and March 24-25, 2003, and 2,030 adults, 18 years and older, conducted January 17-20 and January 23-26, 1991. For results based on these samples, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Support for U.S. Wars with Iraq by Group, 1991 and 2003, Sorted by Difference in Support

 

Group	% Favor, 2003	Sample Size 2003	% Approve, 1991	Sample Size, 1991	Difference in support between 2003 and 1991
Overall	72	2028	81	2030	-9
Black	29	141	59	159	-30
Liberal	44	369	72	622	-28
Independent	53	667	73	663	-20
Income less than $30,000	58	507	77	823	-19
18-29 years old	66	301	82	478	-16
College graduate	65	787	80	576	-15
50-64 years old	69	517	83	384	-14
Reside in south	71	656	85	595	-14
Reside in east	66	457	79	504	-13
Democrat	66	584	79	656	-13
Women	66	1064	76	1015	-10
High School Graduate only	73	515	83	690	-10
30-49 years old	75	844	84	841	-9
Less than H.S. education	67	129	76	216	-9
Income $50,000 and over	77	960	86	483	-9
No children under 18	70	619	79	1223	-9
Men	78	964	86	1015	-8
Children under 18	76	394	84	799	-8
Reside in Midwest	73	474	80	517	-7
Moderate	70	744	77	448	-7
Some college education	77	587	83	538	-6
Income $30,000-$49,999	79	455	85	540	-6
Conservative	84	892	90	938	-6
White	78	1673	83	1756	-5
Reside in west	77	441	81	411	-4
Republican	93	750	92	690	+1
65 years and older	73	353	71	310	+2