麻豆传媒AV

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A CNN/USA Today/麻豆传媒AV poll conducted last night shows Americans expect the American presence in Iraq to last for some time, and most believe that the transition to a democratic government in Iraq will be difficult. As the end of the war draws near, a majority of Americans believe the United States should restore good relations with countries that opposed military action against Iraq, and pressure the Israelis and Palestinians for peace. The poll shows Americans' desire for war with potentially threatening countries beyond Iraq is low, and most Americans do not expect that the United States will be at war with any other country within a year. A majority says the Iraqi war has made the United States safer from terrorism.

Public Expects Fighting to Continue

Last night's poll echoes the findings of the April 9 poll that showed very few Americans believe the war is over despite the recent successes in Baghdad and other parts of Iraq. The new poll finds two-thirds of Americans saying the fighting in Iraq will last about a month or longer. Only 10% believe the fighting in Iraq will continue for a week or less, and 18% say it will last about two weeks.

How much longer do you think the fighting in Iraq will last -- just a few days, about a week, about two weeks, up to a month, or longer than that?

 

	Just a few days	About a week	About two weeks	Up to a month	Longer than a month	No opinion
2003 Apr 10	2%	8	18	26	42	4

The April 9 poll, though, showed that most Americans who said the war was not over believed that only minor fighting -- as opposed to major battles -- remained for the U.S. troops.

There is little hope on the part of the American public that most U.S. troops will be leaving Iraq soon. When asked how long they expect a significant number of U.S. troops to remain in Iraq once the war is over, about half say a year or longer, including 21% who say longer than two years. Thirty-three percent say six months to a year. Only 15% of Americans expect U.S. troops to be in Iraq for six months or less.

How long do you think the U.S. will have a significant number of troops in Iraq after the war is over -- less than three months, three to six months, six months to a year, one to two years, or longer than that?

 

	Less than three months	Three to six months	Six months to a year	One to two years	Longer than two years	No opinion
2003 Apr 10	1%	14	33	28	21	3

United States Believed to Have Crucial Role in Establishing New Iraqi Government

The public expects a very prominent role for the United States in establishing a new democratic government in Iraq. A majority of Americans say the United States should be completely (11%) or mostly (46%) responsible for creating a new Iraqi government. Only about 1 in 10 say the United States does not have any responsibility in this matter.

The Wednesday night poll showed Americans to be about evenly divided in their preference as to whether the United States (48%) or the United Nations (45%) should control Iraq until a new government is established there. But 80% of Americans would go along with the president if he decided the United States -- rather than the United Nations -- should control Iraq in the short term.

Americans have no illusions about the ease of transforming Iraq into a democracy. Fully 8 in 10 Americans say it will be somewhat (51%) or very (31%) difficult to create a stable democratic government there, and just 16% say it will be easy.

Establishing a new government in Iraq is just one item on the public's international to-do list:

• Three-quarters of Americans say it is at least somewhat important for the United States to restore good relations with France, Germany, and other Western nations that opposed U.S. military action in Iraq. A majority, 51%, says this is very important for the United States to do, while just 12% believe it is not important at all. Democrats (67%) are about twice as likely as Republicans (34%) to say this is very important for the United States.

• A majority, 57%, also says the United States should use its position in the Middle East coming out of the war to pressure the Israelis and Palestinians to make a peace agreement. About 4 in 10 Americans believe the United States should not apply such pressure.

Relatively Few Americans Favor War With Other Countries

Some have speculated that the United States may turn the attention of its military to other potentially threatening countries, including those believed to sponsor terrorism and those believed to have weapons of mass destruction. Among the countries mentioned as possible targets for future military action on these grounds are Iran, North Korea, and Syria. However, the poll indicates this is not high on the public's international agenda -- only about one in four Americans would currently favor going to war with any of these nations.

As you may know, the U.S. believes Iran, North Korea, and Syria are either providing assistance to terrorists or attempting to develop weapons of mass destruction. For each, please say if you think the U.S. should or should not go to war with that country. How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

 

2003 Apr 10	Yes, should	No, should not	No opinion
	%	%	%
North Korea	28	67	5
Iran	24	69	7
Syria	24	68	8

By comparison, from the end of the Persian Gulf War in 1991 through the beginning of the current war with Iraq, polls had generally shown a majority of Americans in favor of military action against Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein from power. Last night's poll showed 72% of Americans in favor of the war with Iraq, and only 22% opposed, both figures roughly in line with where they have been since the war began on March 19.

Only about one in three Americans believe the United States will be at war with a country other than Iraq within the year, while 63% say the United States will not be at war.

This reluctance to engage in further military conflict may be related to the fact that, on balance, Americans say the war with Iraq has made the United States safer (51%) rather than less safe (37%) from terrorism.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 522 adults, 18 years and older, conducted April 10, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±5 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

Do you favor or oppose the U.S. war with Iraq?

 

	Favor	Oppose	No opinion
	%	%	%
2003 Apr 10	72	22	6
2003 Apr 7-8	68	28	4
2003 Apr 5-6	70	27	3
2003 Mar 29-30	70	27	3
2003 Mar 24-25	71	27	2
2003 Mar 22-23	72	25	3

How much responsibility do you think the U.S. should have for establishing a stable democratic government in Iraq? Do you think the U.S. should be -- completely responsible, mostly responsible, only a little responsible, or not responsible at all?

 

	Com- pletely respon- sible	Mostly respon- sible	Only a little respon- sible	Not respon- sible at all	No opinion
2003 Apr 10	11%	46	28	11	4

Do you think it will be -- [ROTATED: very easy, somewhat easy, somewhat difficult (or) very difficult] -- to create a stable democratic government in Iraq?

 

	Very easy	Somewhat easy	Somewhat difficult	Very difficult	No opinion
2003 Apr 10	4%	12	51	31	2

Do you think the war with Iraq has made the U.S. safer -- or less safe -- from terrorism?

 

	Safer	Less safe	NO CHANGE (vol.)	No opinion
2003 Apr 10	51%	37	9	3
(vol.) Volunteered response

How important do you think it is for the U.S. to restore good relations with France, Germany and other western nations that opposed U.S. military action in Iraq -- very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?

 

	Very important	Somewhat important	Not too important	Not important at all	No opinion
2003 Apr 10	51%	24	11	12	2

As a result of the war with Iraq, do you think the United States should or should not use its position in the Middle East to pressure the Israelis and Palestinians to make a peace agreement requiring compromises by both sides?

 

	Should	Should not	No opinion
2003 Apr 10	57%	37	6

Just your best guess, do you think the U.S. will -- or will not -- be at war with a country other than Iraq within the next year?

 

	Yes, will	No, will not	No opinion
2003 Apr 10	32%	63	5