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U.S. States Remain Equally Divided on Partisanship

U.S. States Remain Equally Divided on Partisanship

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As the nation enters the 2004 election year, Â鶹´«Ã½AV data show the country is evenly divided in its partisan affiliation -- 45.5% of Americans identify as Republicans or say they lean toward the Republican Party, and 45.2% identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party. The remaining 9% identify themselves as independents and express no proclivity to either of the major parties.

These results, based on more than 40,000 interviews conducted throughout 2003, are similar to what Â鶹´«Ã½AV found in 2002, when 45.4% of Americans identified or leaned toward the Democratic Party and 45.3% did so toward the Republican Party. But the results from the last two years represent a major shift in American politics -- the Democratic Party long held a consistent advantage in overall partisan identification in the United States. Ten years ago, Democrats enjoyed a nine-percentage-point advantage over Republicans, 49% to 40%. Historical Â鶹´«Ã½AV data suggest the Democratic margin was even larger before then.

However, in no sense does the closeness of the national average partisanship suggest that Americans are roughly equally divided across the nation. Partisanship continues to vary considerably by state, and this manifests itself in states' voters' consistent favoring of one party's presidential candidates over the other's. By now, the terms "red states" and "blue states" are familiar to many. Red states are those that have tended to support Republican presidential candidates in the last three elections, and are largely found in the South and Mountain West part of the country. Blue states are those that have tended to support Democratic candidates, and are generally found in the Northeast and on the Pacific Coast.

States' political leanings are apparent in Â鶹´«Ã½AV polling data. In every poll it conducts, Â鶹´«Ã½AV asks Americans which party they support. Those who say they are independent or express no partisan preference are asked whether they lean toward either of the major parties.

Decades of voting behavior research show that those who identify as political independents but say they lean toward one of the two parties behave much like partisans at election time. That is, a voter who says he or she is politically independent but leans toward the Republican Party is likely to vote for Republican candidates.

In 2003, Â鶹´«Ã½AV conducted more than 40,000 interviews with randomly selected Americans in the continental United States. Combining all these data allows for generally reliable estimates of partisanship within most states.

State Partisanship

The following table shows the partisan breakdown for each state, ordered from the states with the greatest Republican advantage to the states with the greatest Democratic advantage. These partisan estimates combine Republicans and Republican leaners into the Republican category, and Democrats and Democratic leaners into the Democratic category. Independents who do not lean toward either major party are omitted from the table.

The Republican advantage is the difference in the percentage of Republicans/Republican leaners and Democrats/Democratic leaners in each state, with positive scores indicating a Republican advantage and negative scores a Democratic advantage in the state.

Partisan Identification by State, 2003 Â鶹´«Ã½AV Polls

State

Number of
interviews

% Republican
+ lean

% Democrat
+ lean

Republican
advantage

Utah

368

61.2

31.6

29.6

Idaho

235

59.6

32.2

27.5

Wyoming

106

60.2

35.4

24.8

North Dakota

137

57.7

34.5

23.2

Nebraska

275

57.9

35.7

22.2

South Dakota

102

57.9

39.3

18.7

Kansas

477

55.0

37.4

17.6

New Hampshire

248

52.7

36.9

15.8

Texas

2,513

51.9

38.1

13.8

South Carolina

553

52.2

39.5

12.6

Oklahoma

552

52.7

40.8

11.9

Alabama

668

51.0

39.3

11.7

Arizona

723

51.9

40.6

11.3

Mississippi

328

51.7

42.0

9.7

Virginia

1052

49.5

40.2

9.3

Indiana

963

49.4

40.6

8.9

Colorado

758

49.3

41.2

8.1

Georgia

1,110

48.8

42.6

6.2

Tennessee

911

49.8

43.8

6.1

Montana

211

45.6

39.5

6.0

Missouri

909

47.9

43.5

4.4

North Carolina

1,349

47.9

45.0

2.9

Florida

2,248

47.1

44.2

2.9

Nevada

310

45.9

43.2

2.7

Ohio

1,726

45.4

44.5

1.0

New Mexico

290

46.7

46.0

0.7

Washington

1,044

44.4

43.8

0.6

Maine

260

44.2

44.2

0.0

New Jersey

1,170

44.1

45.0

-0.9

Pennsylvania

2,189

45.1

46.2

-1.1

Minnesota

799

44.2

46.8

-2.5

Wisconsin

1,033

43.0

46.0

-3.0

Louisiana

621

44.7

48.1

-3.4

Kentucky

709

44.0

48.7

-4.7

Michigan

1,331

41.8

47.0

-5.2

Delaware

121

41.2

46.5

-5.3

West Virginia

349

43.2

49.6

-6.5

California

4,271

42.2

49.4

-7.1

Oregon

641

40.2

48.0

-7.7

Illinois

1,356

40.9

49.4

-8.5

Rhode Island

208

37.5

46.3

-8.8

Iowa

514

38.0

47.0

-9.0

Maryland

695

41.4

52.4

-11.0

Massachusetts

959

37.4

50.5

-13.1

Connecticut

483

35.9

51.4

-15.5

New York

2,535

36.6

53.1

-16.5

Arkansas

433

35.5

53.7

-18.2

Vermont

131

35.9

54.9

-19.0

District of Columbia

74

21.3

72.0

-50.7

Overall, the data indicate that 20 states are solidly Republican (for purposes of this analysis, the standard is an advantage of six percentage points or more), 12 states plus the District of Columbia are Democratic, and 16 are fairly competitive (show a slight preference for one party but by less than six percentage points).

While the Democrats have an advantage in fewer states, they have the edge in larger states such as California, New York, and Illinois. Of the six most populous states, Republicans only have a clear advantage in Texas, while partisanship is fairly evenly distributed in Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania.

Despite the numerical Republican advantage in states, those states' 2004 electoral votes total 169, nearly the same as those in states in which Democrats enjoy a comfortable advantage (171).

The closely matched states -- those in which the parties are within six percentage points of each other -- have a total of 191 electoral votes. (Â鶹´«Ã½AV does not interview in Alaska and Hawaii. Hawaii has four electoral votes, which usually go Democratic, and Alaska has three, which usually go Republican.) Even further breaking down the competitive states into those that tilt toward the GOP (where Republicans have an edge of one to five percentage points) or to the Democratic Party shows an even distribution. Of the 191 electoral votes in competitive states, 78 are in states that tilt Republican, 78 are in states that tilt Democratic, and 55 are in states in which partisanship is roughly even.

All else being equal, the parties are evenly matched in terms of political partisanship on a state-by-state basis, especially from an electoral perspective.

Utah is the most Republican state, both in terms of the percentage of residents identifying as Republicans, and in the Republican-over-Democrat advantage in that state. Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, and Nebraska all show Republicans with at least a 20-point edge over Democrats. Additionally, South Dakota and Kansas show at least 55% of state residents identifying as Republicans or leaning toward the GOP.

The only place in which Democrats have an edge greater than 20 points over Republicans is in the District of Columbia (though this is based on a limited number of interviews, Democrats clearly have a significant edge among residents of the nation's capital). Vermont, Arkansas, New York, and Connecticut all show 15-point advantages or greater for the Democratic Party. In addition to those states, Massachusetts and Maryland have a majority of residents identifying as Democrats or leaning toward the Democratic Party.

The Â鶹´«Ã½AV data suggest that partisanship is most evenly divided in Maine, Washington, New Mexico, New Jersey, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. All these states show the parties within one percentage point of each other. In North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, no more than three percentage points divides the parties.

Historical Comparison

Ten years ago, the Democratic Party had a solid advantage in national public support over the Republican Party. The partisan distribution of the states also reflected this. The table below shows how partisanship changed at the state level between 1993 and 2003. The number of states showing a solid Republican preference has nearly tripled from 7 to 20, while the number of solid Democratic states has been nearly halved, from 25 to 14. Everything else being equal -- which is not always the case in presidential elections -- Republicans are now starting out with substantially more "natural" electoral votes than they did in 1993 -- 169 compared with 35.

Change in Partisanship Composition of U.S. States, 1993 vs. 2003

1993

2003

Number of
states

1991-2000
Electoral
votes
represented

Number of
states

2001-2010
Electoral
votes
represented

Solid Democratic states

25*

326

14*

171

Closely matched states

17

170

16

191

Solid Republican states

7

35

20

169

*Includes District of Columbia
Note: Hawaii and Alaska not included

An analysis of each state shows how things have changed in the past decade. The vast majority of states -- 41 in total -- have shown at least some movement toward the Republican Party. In that same time, just six states have moved toward the Democratic Party, while New York and the District of Columbia have shown no change.

The table organizes the states by region to help illustrate the regional patterns of partisan support. Democrats continue to enjoy an advantage in the Northeast and the Pacific Coast. Former Democratic advantages in many Midwestern states have disappeared -- only Illinois and Iowa were solidly Democratic 10 years ago and remain so, while the remaining Midwestern states tend to be competitive these days. Most Southern states are now solidly Republican, while 10 years ago they were competitive or solidly Democratic.

State

1993 classification
(tilt toward which
party)

2003 classification
(tilt toward which
party)

Pct. Pt. Change in
Republican
identification,
1993-2003

Maine

Competitive (Dem)

Competitive (none)

+2

New Hampshire

Competitive (Rep)

Solid Rep

+9

Vermont

Competitive (Rep)

Solid Dem

-8

Massachusetts

Solid Dem

Solid Dem

+5

Rhode Island

Solid Dem

Solid Dem

+2

Connecticut

Solid Dem

Solid Dem

-2

New York

Solid Dem

Solid Dem

0

New Jersey

Competitive (Rep)

Competitive (none)

-1

Pennsylvania

Solid Dem

Competitive (Dem)

+3

Maryland

Solid Dem

Solid Dem

+5

Delaware

Solid Dem

Competitive (Dem)

+4

West Virginia

Solid Dem

Solid Dem

+9

District of Columbia

Solid Dem

Solid Dem

0

Ohio

Solid Dem

Competitive (none)

+5

Michigan

Solid Dem

Competitive (Dem)

+3

Indiana

Competitive (Rep)

Solid Rep

+3

Illinois

Solid Dem

Solid Dem

+3

Wisconsin

Solid Dem

Competitive (Dem)

+6

Minnesota

Solid Dem

Competitive (Dem)

+12

Iowa

Solid Dem

Solid Dem

+1

Missouri

Solid Dem

Competitive (Rep)

+13

North Dakota

Competitive (Rep)

Solid Rep

+12

South Dakota

Competitive (Rep)

Solid Rep

+9

Nebraska

Solid Rep

Solid Rep

+6

Kansas

Solid Rep

Solid Rep

+4

Virginia

Competitive (Dem)

Solid Rep

+6

North Carolina

Competitive (Dem)

Competitive (Rep)

+4

South Carolina

Competitive (Dem)

Solid Rep

+6

Georgia

Solid Dem

Solid Rep

+10

Florida

Competitive (Dem)

Competitive (Rep)

+3

Kentucky

Solid Dem

Competitive (Dem)

+4

Tennessee

Solid Dem

Solid Rep

+8

Alabama

Solid Dem

Solid Rep

+12

Mississippi

Solid Dem

Solid Rep

+9

Arkansas

Solid Dem

Solid Dem

-3

Louisiana

Solid Dem

Competitive (Dem)

+12

Oklahoma

Solid Dem

Solid Rep

+14

Texas

Competitive (Dem)

Solid Rep

+9

Montana

Competitive (Dem)

Solid Rep

+5

Arizona

Solid Rep

Solid Rep

+2

Colorado

Competitive (none)

Solid Rep

+3

Idaho

Solid Rep

Solid Rep

+10

Wyoming

Solid Rep

Solid Rep

+8

Utah

Solid Rep

Solid Rep

+12

Nevada

Solid Rep

Competitive (Rep)

-3

New Mexico

Competitive (Dem)

Competitive (none)

+4

California

Solid Dem

Solid Dem

+2

Oregon

Competitive (Dem)

Solid Dem

-2

Washington

Competitive (Dem)

Competitive (none)

+4

The biggest Republican gains have been made in Oklahoma, Missouri, Alabama, Louisiana, Utah, Minnesota, North Dakota, Idaho, and Georgia. In Oklahoma, Alabama, and Georgia, the shifts were large enough to move the states from a solid Democratic advantage to a solid Republican advantage. A 10-point gain for one party usually comes at the expense of the other party, and results in a change in the gap between the two parties of about 20 points. For example, in Georgia a 54% to 39% edge for the Democrats in 1993 shifted to a 49% to 43% edge for Republicans by 2003, a change in the gap of 21 points from a 15-point Democratic edge to a 6-point Republican edge.

Louisiana and Minnesota -- two of the most solidly Democratic states in 1993 -- are now competitive and show just a slight edge to the Democrats. Republicans have strengthened their hold in Utah, North Dakota, and Idaho.

Bottom Line

All else being equal -- the parties stand on relatively equal footing heading into the 2004 election. However, given that incumbent president George W. Bush is seeking re-election, the ultimate choice in 2004 may rest on voters' evaluations of the job he is doing more so than on their party preferences.

*These results are based on a combination of 41,048 interviews with U.S. adults, aged 18 and older, in multiday Â鶹´«Ã½AV telephone polls conducted in 2003. The maximum margin of error attributable to sampling is ± 1 percentage point for the entire sample.

For individual states, the maximum margins of sampling error vary from a low of ± 2 percentage points for California to highs of ±11 points for South Dakota and ± 13 percentage points for Washington, D.C. The typical state, with about 800 interviews, would have a margin of sampling error of ±4 percentage points.


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