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Americans' Economic Assessments Mixed

by

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The beginning of the New Year finds Americans maintaining mixed views on the economy. Four in 10 rate the economic conditions in positive terms, up slightly from the fall but not significantly better than in August and September. More Americans say the economy is getting better than say it is getting worse, but less than half have an optimistic view. Just one in three Americans rate the job market positively -- believing now is a good time to find a quality job. However, fewer Americans now view the economy as the most important problem facing the nation than did so in the fall.

Rating of Current Economic Conditions

In Â鶹´«Ã½AV's Jan. 3-5 poll, 41% of Americans rate the economy as either "excellent" (3%) or "good" (38%), while 42% say it is "only fair" and 17% "poor." These are up slightly from the previous three months' data, but not appreciably better than the 39% excellent/good ratings in August and September.

However, the latest poll does mark the first time in a year that the percentage rating the economy as excellent or good has exceeded 40%. Before this month, those ratings had only exceeded 40% a total of four times (out of 61 distinct measurements) since July 2001.

General Direction of the Economy

The January poll finds the public continuing, by a small margin, to be more optimistic than pessimistic about the direction in which the economy is headed. Forty-eight percent say the economy is getting better, while 42% say it is getting worse. Those percentages are essentially unchanged from November and December 2004.  

While ratings of the current state of the national economy have stayed fairly steady during the last year, Americans' assessments of the economic outlook varied considerably in the past year, from a low of 39% saying the economy is getting better in mid-October to a high of 66% in early January 2004.

The Job Market

Americans continue to believe that job prospects are somewhat grim. By a 62% to 33% margin, the public says it is a bad, rather than good, time "to find a quality job." Despite the overall negative characterization of the job market, it has been much worse in the recent past. In fact, the 33% saying it is a good time is one of the highest measurements Â鶹´«Ã½AV has measured since it regularly began tracking this question in October 2001. However, the current percentage is down slightly from 36% and 37% readings in December and November, respectively.

Most Important Problem

The poll finds a noticeable decline in the percentage of Americans mentioning some aspect of the economy when they are asked to name the most important problem facing the country -- an average of 30% in the last two polls compared with 38% in November and 40% in October.

Looking only at mentions of specific problems, 25% of Americans say the situation in Iraq is the top problem, ranking it ahead of all other issues. Twelve percent mention the economy in general, 11% unemployment, 9% healthcare, and 8% terrorism. The latter figure ties for the lowest percentage mentioning terrorism since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

Most Important Problem Facing the Country Today

 

Issue

Percent Mentioning

%

Situation in Iraq

25

Economy (general mentions)

12

Unemployment/Jobs

11

Healthcare

9

Terrorism

8

Dissatisfaction with government leaders

7

Ethical/Moral/Religious decline

6

Poverty/Hunger/Homelessness

5

Social Security/Medicare

5

Education

4

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,005 adults, aged 18 years and older, conducted Jan. 3-5, 2005. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

7. What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? [Open-ended]

Jan
3-5,
2005

Dec
5-8,
2004

Nov
7-10,
2004

%

%

%

ECONOMIC PROBLEMS (NET)

31

29

38

1

Economy in general

12

12

17

2

Unemployment/Jobs

11

10

14

3

Federal budget deficit/Federal debt

3

3

4

4

Lack of Money

2

1

1

5

Taxes

2

2

2

6

Foreign trade/Trade deficit

1

*

1

7

High cost of living/Inflation

1

1

1

8

Gap between rich and poor

1

1

*

9

Wage issues

1

*

1

10

Fuel/Oil Prices

1

2

1

11

Corporate corruption

*

1

1

12

Recession

*

--

--

 

 

 

NON-ECONOMIC PROBLEMS (NET)

76

76

78

1

Situation in Iraq/war

25

23

26

2

Poor healthcare/hospitals; high cost of healthcare

9

7

12

3

Terrorism

8

12

13

4

Dissatisfaction with government/Congress/ politicians/candidates; Poor leadership; corruption

7

6

4

5

Ethics/moral/religious/family decline; dishonesty; lack of integrity

6

10

7

6

Poverty/Hunger/Homelessness

5

2

1

7

Medicare/Social Security issues

5

2

5

8

Education/Poor education/Access to education

4

3

2

9

Foreign aid/Focus overseas

3

1

3

10

National security

3

4

4

11

Crime/Violence

2

1

1

12

Judicial system/Courts/Laws

2

2

3

13

Lack of respect for each other

2

2

1

14

Immigration/Illegal aliens

2

2

1

14

Drugs

2

2

1

15

International issues/problems

2

3

3

16

Unifying the country

1

2

2

17

Abortion

1

1

1

18

Race relations/Racism

1

*

*

19

Welfare

1

*

*

20

Environment/Pollution

1

1

1

21

Homosexuality/Gay issues

*

*

2

22

The media

*

1

1

23

Overpopulation

*

*

*

24

Abuse of power

*

*

*

25

Election year/Presidential choices/Election reform

*

*

2

26

Lack of energy sources; the energy crisis

*

*

*

27

Care for the elderly

*

*

*

28

Cancer/Diseases

*

*

--

29

Guns/Gun control

*

--

*

Children's behavior/way they are raised

*

1

1

Child abuse

--

*

--

Lack of military defense

--

--

*

Space program/NASA

--

--

--

Other non-economic

3

3

4

 

 

 

No opinion

4

2

1

Total

134%

145%

143%

* Less than 0.5%

10. How would you rate economic conditions in this country today -- as excellent, good, only fair, or poor?


Excellent


Good

Only
fair


Poor

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

2005

 

 

 

 

 

2005 Jan 3-5

3

38

42

17

*

2004

 

 

 

 

 

2004 Dec 5-8

2

35

43

19

1

2004 Nov 7-10

3

33

44

20

*

2004 Oct 11-14

2

32

44

22

*

2004 Oct 9-10

4

31

40

24

1

2004 Sep 13-15

3

36

39

22

*

2004 Aug 9-11

3

36

40

21

*

2004 Jul 30-Aug 1

6

32

39

23

*

2004 Jul 8-11

5

32

41

21

1

2004 Jun 3-6

3

32

44

21

*

2004 May 2-4

2

27

43

27

1

2004 Apr 5-8

3

31

44

22

*

2004 Mar 8-11

2

30

44

24

*

2004 Feb 9-12

2

31

46

21

--

2004 Jan 12-15

3

34

42

21

--

2004 Jan 2-5

3

40

41

16

*

2003

 

 

 

 

 

2003 Dec 11-14

3

34

44

19

*

2003 Nov 3-5

2

28

49

21

*

2003 Oct 24-26

2

24

44

30

*

2003 Oct 6-8

2

20

50

27

1

2003 Sep 8-10

1

20

49

30

*

2003 Aug 4-6

1

24

52

23

*

2003 Jul 7-9

1

23

50

26

*

2003 Jun 12-15

1

25

49

25

*

2003 May 19-21

1

20

47

31

1

2003 May 5-7

1

21

50

28

*

2003 Apr 7-9

2

25

51

22

*

2003 Mar 29-30

1

25

51

23

*

2003 Mar 24-25

3

30

47

20

--

2003 Mar 3-5

1

21

46

32

*

2003 Feb 17-19

1

17

48

34

*

2003 Feb 3-6

2

20

53

25

*

2003 Jan 20-22

1

19

49

31

*

2003 Jan 13-16

2

20

50

28

*

2002

 

 

 

 

 

2002 Dec 19-22

1

23

48

28

*

2002 Dec 5-8

2

23

51

24

*

2002 Nov 22-24

2

30

45

23

*

2002 Oct 31-Nov 3

2

26

45

26

1

2002 Oct 3-6

2

24

46

27

1

2002 Sep 23-26

2

25

47

25

1

2002 Sep 5-8

2

22

53

23

*

2002 Aug 19-21

1

23

47

28

1

2002 Aug 5-8

1

27

52

19

1

2002 Jul 29-31

2

27

48

22

1

2002 Jul 22-24

2

25

48

24

1

2002 Jul 9-11

2

26

51

20

1

2002 Jun 17-19

2

35

43

19

1

2002 Jun 3-6

3

33

49

14

1

2002 May 20-22

3

38

46

12

1

2002 May 6-9

2

33

51

14

*

2002 Apr 22-24

2

37

46

14

1

2002 Apr 8-11

2

36

51

11

*

2002 Mar 4-7

3

31

51

14

1

2002 Feb 4-6

2

26

55

16

1

2002 Jan 7-9

2

27

54

16

1

2001

 

 

 

 

 

2001 Dec 6-9

2

29

53

16

*

2001 Nov 8-11

2

29

50

19

*

2001 Oct 11-14

2

36

48

13

1

2001 Sep 14-15

3

43

44

9

1

2001 Sep 7-10

2

30

49

19

*

2001 Aug 16-19

2

34

49

14

1

2001 Jul 19-22

3

38

47

11

1

2001 Jun 11-17

3

39

45

12

1

2001 May 10-14

3

37

45

15

*

2001 Apr 6-8

4

41

41

14

*

2001 Mar 5-7

3

43

43

10

1

2001 Feb 1-4

7

44

36

13

*

2001 Jan 10-14

11

56

27

6

*

2000

 

 

 

 

 

2000 Dec 2-4

12

51

28

8

1

2000 Nov 13-15

19

53

21

7

*

2000 Oct 6-9

14

57

24

4

1

2000 Aug 18-19

25

49

21

4

1

2000 Jul 25-26

26

48

21

4

1

2000 May 18-21

17

49

24

9

1

2000 Apr 3-9

14

46

30

9

1

2000 Jan 7-10

19

52

23

5

1

1999

 

 

 

 

 

1999 Oct 21-24

16

49

27

8

*

1999 Sep 10-14

20

47

24

8

1

1999 Aug 24-26

14

50

28

7

1

1999 Jun 4-5

18

56

21

5

*

1999 Jan 15-17

14

55

27

4

*

1998

 

 

 

 

 

1998 Dec 4-6

13

52

27

8

*

1998 Oct 29-Nov 1

13

53

27

6

1

1998 Sep 1

11

54

25

9

1

1998 Mar 20-22

20

46

27

7

*

1997

 

 

 

 

 

1997 Dec 18-21

7

41

38

12

2

1997 Nov 6-9

10

48

33

9

*

1997 Aug 22-25^

8

41

38

13

*

1997 May 6-7

7

39

38

15

1

1997 Jan 31-Feb 2

4

38

43

15

*

1996

 

 

 

 

 

1996 Oct 26-29

5

42

39

13

1

1996 Aug 30-Sep 1 †

3

34

46

16

1

1996 Jul 18-21

5

38

43

14

*

1996 May 9-12

3

27

50

19

1

1996 Apr 9-10

1

26

52

20

1

1996 Mar 15-17

2

31

48

18

1

1996 Jan 5-7

1

28

47

23

1

1995

 

 

 

 

 

1995 Nov 6-8

2

28

47

22

1

1995 May 11-14

2

27

50

20

1

1994

 

 

 

 

 

1994 Dec 16-18

2

25

52

21

*

1994 Nov 2-6

2

28

49

20

1

1994 Oct 22-25

1

25

52

21

1

1994 Jul 15-17

1

26

52

21

*

1994 Apr 22-24

1

23

49

26

1

1994 Jan 15-17

*

22

54

24

*

1993

 

 

 

 

 

1993 Dec 4-6

1

20

57

21

1

1993 Nov 2-4

1

16

50

33

*

1993 Aug 8-10

*

10

49

40

1

1993 Jun 29-30

1

14

52

32

1

1993 Feb 12-14

*

14

46

39

1

1992

 

 

 

 

 

1992 Dec 18-20

2

16

34

47

1

1992 Dec 4-6

1

14

41

43

1

1992 Oct 23-25

*

11

45

43

1

1992 Sep 11-15

1

10

37

51

1

1992 Aug 31-Sep 2 †

1

9

37

53

*

1992 Jun 12-14 †

1

11

47

41

*

1992 Apr 9-12 †

1

11

40

48

*

1992 Jan 3-6

*

12

46

41

1

 

 

 

 

 

* Less than .5%

^ Asked of half sample

† Asked of Registered Voters

11. Right now, do you think that economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse?  

Getting
better

Getting
worse

SAME
 (vol.)

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

2005

 

 

 

 

(NA) 2005 Jan 3-5

48

42

7

3

2004

 

 

 

 

(NA) 2004 Dec 5-8

47

42

8

3

(NA) 2004 Nov 7-10

49

43

6

2

(NA) 2004 Oct 11-14

39

50

8

3

(NA) 2004 Oct 9-10

43

48

7

2

(NA) 2004 Sep 13-15

47

45

6

2

(NA) 2004 Aug 9-11

45

46

7

2

(NA) 2004 Jul 30-Aug 1

48

43

7

2

(NA) 2004 Jul 8-11

51

38

7

4

(NA) 2004 Jun 3-6

47

45

6

2

(NA) 2004 May 2-4

43

51

4

2

(NA) 2004 Apr 5-8

47

45

6

2

(NA) 2004 Mar 8-11

44

47

7

2

(NA) 2004 Feb 9-12

53

40

6

1

(NA) 2004 Jan 12-15

53

39

6

2

(NA) 2004 Jan 2-5

66

27

4

3

2003

 

 

 

 

(NA) 2003 Dec 11-14

60

32

7

1

(NA) 2003 Nov 3-5

53

37

8

2

(NA) 2003 Oct 24-26

47

43

8

2

(NA) 2003 Oct 6-8

45

46

7

2

(NA) 2003 Sep 8-10

40

50

8

2

(NA) 2003 Aug 4-6

44

45

9

2

(NA) 2003 Jul 7-9

43

47

8

2

(NA) 2003 Jun 12-15

45

43

10

2

(NA) 2003 May 19-21

40

48

10

2

(NA) 2003 May 5-7

42

51

5

2

(NA) 2003 Apr 7-9

36

51

11

2

(NA) 2003 Mar 29-30

33

56

9

2

(NA) 2003 Mar 24-25

39

47

11

3

(NA) 2003 Mar 3-5

23

67

7

3

(NA) 2003 Feb 17-19

26

63

9

2

(NA) 2003 Feb 3-6

27

60

11

2

(NA) 2003 Jan 20-22

29

57

12

2

(NA) 2003 Jan 13-16

34

54

10

2

2002

 

 

 

 

(NA) 2002 Dec 19-22

35

50

12

3

(NA) 2002 Dec 5-8

35

54

8

3

(NA) 2002 Nov 22-24

38

53

8

1

(NA) 2002 Oct 31-Nov 3

37

51

8

4

(NA) 2002 Oct 3-6

30

59

8

3

(NA) 2002 Sep 23-26

33

52

10

5

(NA) 2002 Sep 5-8

35

54

9

2

(NA) 2002 Aug 19-21

38

48

10

4

(NA) 2002 Aug 5-8

32

55

9

4

(NA) 2002 Jul 29-31

42

47

8

3

(NA) 2002 Jul 22-24

27

59

10

4

(NA) 2002 Jul 9-11

31

57

10

2

(NA) 2002 Jun 17-19

47

40

10

3

(NA) 2002 Jun 3-6

48

38

11

3

(NA) 2002 May 20-22

49

34

14

3

(NA) 2002 May 6-9

52

39

7

2

(NA) 2002 Apr 22-24

53

35

10

2

(NA) 2002 Apr 8-11

53

37

7

3

(NA) 2002 Mar 4-7

54

37

7

2

(NA) 2002 Feb 4-6

41

47

10

2

(NA) 2002 Jan 7-9

49

41

8

2

2001

 

 

 

 

(NA) 2001 Dec 6-9

44

48

6

2

(NA) 2001 Nov 8-11

30

59

7

4

(NA) 2001 Oct 11-14

33

55

10

2

(NA) 2001 Sep 14-15

28

60

8

4

(NA) 2001 Sep 7-10

19

70

9

2

(NA) 2001 Aug 16-19

27

59

11

3

(NA) 2001 Jul 19-22

35

53

9

3

(NA) 2001 Jun 11-17

29

60

8

3

(NA) 2001 May 10-14

25

63

9

3

(NA) 2001 Apr 6-8

24

63

9

4

(NA) 2001 Mar 5-7

28

61

7

4

(NA) 2001 Feb 1-4

23

66

8

3

(NA) 2001 Jan 10-14

32

56

8

4

2000

 

 

 

 

(NA) 2000 Dec 2-4

39

48

8

5

(NA) 2000 Nov 13-15

50

38

9

3

(NA) 2000 Oct 6-9

54

34

10

2

(NA) 2000 Aug 18-19

60

26

10

4

(NA) 2000 Jul 25-26

58

29

9

4

(NA) 2000 May 18-21

52

37

9

2

(NA) 2000 Jan 7-10

69

23

6

2

1999

 

 

 

 

(NA) 1999 Oct 21-24

52

34

11

3

(NA) 1999 Sep 10-14

59

29

9

3

(NA) 1999 Aug 24-26

54

31

12

3

(NA) 1999 Jun 4-5

60

27

9

4

(NA) 1999 Jan 15-17

63

28

6

3

1998

 

 

 

 

(NA) 1998 Dec 4-6

52

38

8

2

(NA) 1998 Oct 29-Nov 1

51

38

8

3

(NA) 1998 Sep 1

45

41

11

3

(NA) 1997 Dec 18-21

49

39

8

4

(NA) 1997 Nov 6-9

51

37

9

3

(NA) 1997 May 6-7

50

40

7

3

(NA) 1997 Jan 31-Feb 2

46

39

12

3

1996

 

 

 

 

(NA) 1996 Oct 26-29

50

38

7

5

(RV) 1996 Aug 30-Sep 1

52

37

8

3

(NA) 1996 Jul 18-21

43

46

9

2

(NA) 1996 May 9-12

39

49

9

3

1992

 

 

 

 

(RV) 1992 Aug 31-Sep 2

29

59

10

2

(RV) 1992 Aug 10-12

24

65

10

1

(RV) 1992 Jun 12-14

28

61

9

2

(RV) 1992 Apr 9-12

40

45

13

2

(RV) 1992 Mar 20-22

37

51

11

1

(RV) 1992 Jan 31-Feb 1

22

70

7

1

(NA) 1992 Jan 3-6

22

71

6

1

1991

 

 

 

 

(NA) 1991 Dec 5-8

19

69

9

3

(NA) 1991 Sep 5-8

27

60

10

3

(NA) 1991 Jul 11-14

34

51

9

6

14. Thinking about the job situation in America today, would you say that it is now a good time or a bad time to find a quality job?  

Good time

Bad time

No opinion

%

%

%

2005 Jan 3-5

33

62

5

2004 Dec 5-8

36

59

5

2004 Nov 7-10

37

60

3

2004 Oct 11-14

29

67

4

2004 Sep 13-15

34

61

5

2004 Aug 9-11

33

63

4

2004 Jul 8-11

36

61

3

2004 Jun 3-6

32

65

3

2004 May 2-4

30

67

3

2004 Apr 5-8

30

66

4

2004 Mar 8-11

28

69

3

2004 Feb 9-12

28

70

2

2004 Jan 12-15

31

68

1

2003 Dec 11-14

29

68

3

2003 Nov 3-5

24

73

3

2003 Oct 6-8

24

74

2

2003 Sep 8-10

19

79

2

2003 Aug 4-6

17

81

2

2003 Jul 7-9

20

78

2

2003 Jun 12-15

22

76

2

2003 May 5-7

22

75

3

2003 Apr 7-9

23

75

2

2003 Mar 3-5

16

81

3

2003 Feb 3-6

19

79

2

2003 Jan 13-16

20

78

2

2002 Dec 5-8

19

78

3

2002 Dec 5-8

19

78

3

2002 Nov 11-14

27

69

4

2002 Oct 14-17

23

70

7

2002 Sep 5-8

22

74

4

2002 Aug 5-8

27

68

5

2002 Jul 9-11

26

69

5

2002 Jun 3-6

32

64

4

2002 May 6-9

29

67

4

2002 Apr 8-11

29

68

3

2002 Mar 4-7

26

72

2

2002 Feb 4-6

25

72

3

2002 Jan 7-9

24

73

3

2001 Dec 6-9

25

73

2

2001 Nov 8-11

22

75

3

2001 Oct 11-14

25

71

4

2001 Aug 16-19

39

56

5


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