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51% in U.S. Want Amy Coney Barrett Seated on Supreme Court
Politics

51% in U.S. Want Amy Coney Barrett Seated on Supreme Court

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Story Highlights

  • 51% want Barrett to be confirmed to fill Ginsburg's seat; 46% do not
  • The 3% with no opinion of nomination is sharply lower than past readings
  • 84% of Democrats against Barrett nomination, highest on record

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- A slim 51% majority of Americans support federal judge Amy Coney Barrett to fill the U.S. Supreme Court seat left vacant by Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death last month. At the same time, 46% of U.S. adults do not want Barrett to be seated, and 3% do not yet have an opinion of her nomination.

Barrett is the twelfth Supreme Court nominee for whom Â鶹´«Ã½AV has measured public support since 1987. The public's initial support for Barrett's confirmation is higher than either of President Donald Trump's two previous nominees -- Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh -- had at any point prior to their confirmations. But opposition is also higher than any other nominee's initial reading. This is owed to the fact that the percentage of Americans with no opinion on the Barrett vote is strikingly lower than it has been for any other nominee in Â鶹´«Ã½AV's history.

On average, 25% of Americans have not had an opinion of Supreme Court nominees in the initial measure after the president's selection. The 3% with no opinion on Barrett's nomination is even lower than the average 22% that Â鶹´«Ã½AV has seen in the final measurement before the last eight justices were confirmed.

Initial Support for Confirmation of Recent Supreme Court Nominees
Would you like to see the Senate vote in favor of [name of nominee] serving on the Supreme Court, or not?
Date
of poll
Vote
in favor
Not vote
in favor
No
opinion
% % %
Amy Coney Barrett 2020 Sep 30-Oct 15 51 46 3
Brett Kavanaugh 2018 Jul 10-15 41 37 22
Neil Gorsuch 2017 Feb 1-2 45 32 23
Merrick Garland 2016 Mar 18-19 52 29 19
Elena Kagan 2010 May 24-25 46 32 22
Sonia Sotomayor 2009 May 29-31 54 28 19
Samuel Alito 2005 Nov 7-10 50 25 25
Harriet Miers 2005 Oct 13-16 44 36 20
John Roberts 2005 Jul 22-24 59 22 19
Ruth Bader Ginsburg 1993 Jun 18-21 53 14 33
Clarence Thomas 1991 Jul 11-14 52 17 31
Robert Bork 1987 Aug 24-Sep 2 31 25 44
Average for
previous nominees
48 27 25
Note: Data are based on first Â鶹´«Ã½AV survey conducted after nomination was made. There are no measures for Stephen Breyer, David Souter, Anthony Kennedy and Douglas Ginsburg.
GALLUP

The latest reading is from a Sept. 30-Oct. 15 poll, which began four days after Trump officially nominated the 48-year-old federal appeals court judge who is expected to move the court in a more conservative direction. The poll ended on the same day that the Senate Judiciary Committee hearings came to a close.

The committee is expected to vote this week, setting up a final vote by the full Senate the week prior to Election Day, Nov. 3, which makes the current timeline one of the most accelerated in U.S. history. If confirmed as expected, it will be the closest to a general election that a justice has been seated on the nation's highest court.

Several factors may be contributing to the high proportion of Americans expressing an opinion on Barrett's confirmation. Among them is the fact that the nomination process is unfolding during a presidential election campaign in which millions of voters have already cast their ballots. Additionally, Democrats have cited the 2016 precedent when Republican senators refused to consider President Barack Obama's nomination of Merrick Garland nearly eight months before that year's election. Moreover, the fact that Barrett had been cited in the past as a possible nominee by Trump may have raised awareness about her.

Notably, although more Americans want to see Barrett confirmed than not, polling by other organizations has shown solid majorities wanting the winner of the Nov. 3 election and the newly elected Senate to make the nomination rather than President Trump and the current Senate.

Record-High Opposition Among Democrats and Support Among Republicans

While partisanship has always been a factor in the public's reaction to prior nominees, the level of opposition to Barrett's confirmation among Democrats is the highest Â鶹´«Ã½AV has measured to date among those who identify with the party not holding the White House. The 84% of Democrats who stand against Barrett's nomination exceeds the 67% who opposed Kavanaugh shortly after his nomination as well as the final 78% reading after his contentious confirmation hearings.

Opinions About Senate Confirmation of Supreme Court Nominee, Among Those Who Support the Opposition Party (to the President)
Party of president Opposition party Vote in favor Not vote in favor No opinion
% % %
Barrett Rep Dem 15 84 1
Kavanaugh Rep Dem 14 67 19
Gorsuch Rep Dem 21 57 22
Garland Dem Rep 33 51 16
Kagan Dem Rep 26 51 22
Sotomayor Dem Rep 24 57 20
Alito Rep Dem 35 40 25
Miers Rep Dem 27 53 20
Roberts Rep Dem 42 35 23
Ginsburg Dem Rep 41 25 34
Thomas Rep Dem 45 25 31
Bork Rep Dem 18 38 43
Note: Data are based on first Â鶹´«Ã½AV survey conducted after nomination was made. There are no measures for Stephen Breyer, David Souter, Anthony Kennedy and Douglas Ginsburg.
GALLUP

Republicans' support for Barrett's nomination is also higher than any other nominee dating back to 1987. Nearly nine in 10 Republicans (89%) support her compared with 76% who were in favor of Kavanagh and Gorsuch.

Opinions About Senate Confirming Supreme Court Nominee, Among Those Who Identify With the President's Party
Party of president Vote in favor Not vote in favor No opinion
% % %
Barrett Rep 89 9 2
Kavanaugh Rep 76 9 15
Gorsuch Rep 76 11 14
Garland Dem 76 11 14
Kagan Dem 68 12 20
Sotomayor Dem 76 6 17
Alito Rep 73 11 16
Miers Rep 73 16 11
Roberts Rep 82 5 13
Ginsburg Dem 65 6 29
Thomas Rep 63 10 27
Bork Rep 48 11 41
Note: Data are based on first Â鶹´«Ã½AV survey conducted after nomination was made. There are no measures for Stephen Breyer, David Souter, Anthony Kennedy and Douglas Ginsburg.
GALLUP

Independents' 52% support for Barrett's confirmation is identical to what it was for the woman who she would be replacing, Ginsburg. It is also on par with independents' views of the nominations of Sonia Sotomayor and John Roberts, but it is higher than the last two nominees to the high court -- Gorsuch (44%) and Kavanaugh (38%).

Opinions About Senate Confirming Supreme Court Nominee, Among Independents
Vote in favor Not vote in favor No opinion
% % %
Barrett 52 43 5
Kavanaugh 38 37 25
Gorsuch 44 31 25
Garland 44 31 25
Kagan 43 33 25
Sotomayor 54 27 19
Alito 43 26 31
Miers 39 34 27
Roberts 54 24 22
Ginsburg 52 12 36
Thomas 48 17 35
Bork 30 26 44
Note: Data are based on first Â鶹´«Ã½AV survey conducted after nomination was made. There are no measures for Stephen Breyer, David Souter, Anthony Kennedy and Douglas Ginsburg.
GALLUP

Bottom Line

Trump's nomination of Barrett to replace Ginsburg on the Supreme Court was a particularly controversial move given that it came so close to the election. The sharp political polarization in the country and attention from the media to the unusual timing of the nomination may be why nearly all Americans have an opinion about it. Whatever the case, Americans are sharply divided in their support for her.

Democrats have little recourse to stall or otherwise block Barrett's nomination as only 51 votes are needed for confirmation, and the filibuster is no longer an option for Supreme Court justices. As such, they seem to have accepted that Barrett will be most likely be seated before Election Day. Their questions in last week's hearings were used more as an opportunity to try to portend what the court will look like with her tipping the balance even further to the conservative side than to thwart her nomination. They have laid out their predictions about how the U.S. healthcare system and abortion rights may change with Barrett as a justice, and Biden has left the door open to the possibility that, if elected, he may move to add justices to the Supreme Court.

With the exceptions of Bork, Miers and Kavanaugh, there has been little change in Americans' fundamental support for the confirmation of past high court nominees between Â鶹´«Ã½AV's initial readings and subsequent measurements leading up to their confirmation hearings. As such, barring an extraordinary turn of events, the public is likely to continue to back Barrett's confirmation.

View complete question responses and trends (PDF download).

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