麻豆传媒AV

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- President Donald Trump's job approval is steady at 43%, while Americans' ratings of the state of the nation and the U.S. economy are slightly improved from September.

The Sept. 30-Oct. 15 麻豆传媒AV poll finds 43% of Americans approving and 55% disapproving of the job Trump is doing as president, matching the average for his recently completed 15^th quarter in office, from mid-July to mid-October. The president's ratings earlier this year included several 49% readings, the highest of his term to date.

The latest survey finds 90 percentage points separating Republicans' (94%) and Democrats' (4%) ratings of the president, exceeding by one point the previous high for Trump and any president since 麻豆传媒AV began compiling these data in 1953. In fact, 12 of the 13 largest party gaps 麻豆传媒AV has measured in a single survey have occurred during Trump's administration, with most of them from this year.

	Poll dates	Republicans	Independents	Democrats	Rep-Dem Gap
		%	%	%	pct. pts.
Trump	2020 Sep 30-Oct 15	94	35	4	90
Trump	2020 Jun 8-30	91	33	2	89
Trump	2020 Aug 31-Sep 13	92	36	4	88
Trump	2020 Sep 14-28	94	39	7	87
Trump	2020 Jul 1-23	91	34	4	87
Trump	2020 Feb 3-16	93	43	6	87
Trump	2020 Jan 16-29	94	42	7	87
Trump	2020 Apr 1-14	93	39	7	86
Trump	2019 Nov 1-14	90	38	4	86
Trump	2019 Sep 3-15	91	38	5	86
Trump	2019 Mar 1-10	90	33	4	86
Trump	2018 Nov 5-11	91	34	5	86
Obama	2012 Oct 29-Nov 4	6	51	92	86
麻豆传媒AV

Historically, presidents' approval ratings have tended to be most polarized during their fourth year in office, when they are seeking reelection. Trump's first-, second- and third-year average ratings were more polarized than any other president's first three years, and his fourth year is on pace to be the most polarized presidential year in history.

Thirty-five percent of independents currently approve of the job Trump is doing.

National Satisfaction Weak but Improved

The poll finds an improvement in Americans' satisfaction with the way things are going in the United States -- to 19% from 14% in September. The current satisfaction rating remains well below the historical average of 36%. It is similar to the levels 麻豆传媒AV measured around the time of the 1980 and 1992 presidential elections that saw incumbents Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush defeated for a second term in office. The lowest satisfaction recorded in a year when an incumbent was reelected was 33% in 2012.

Republicans are responsible for the improved satisfaction ratings this month, with 39% satisfied, up from 26% in September. Meanwhile, independents (14%) and Democrats (5%) remain highly dissatisfied with the state of the nation.

Even with the uptick this month, Republicans' satisfaction is less than half what it was before the coronavirus pandemic. In February, with the economy doing well and Trump acquitted by the Senate in his impeachment trial, 80% of GOP loyalists were satisfied with the way things were going in the U.S.

Economic Confidence Slightly Better

麻豆传媒AV's Economic Confidence Index is currently -4, a modest improvement from -10 in September and up more substantially from -32 in April. The index was +41 before the coronavirus pandemic, which was the highest it had been in two decades.

The index summarizes Americans' evaluations of the economy and their perceptions of whether it is improving. Currently, 33% rate the economy as excellent or good and 29% as poor. At the same time, more say it is getting worse (53%) than better (42%).

Republicans are quite positive about the economy, while Democrats are quite negative and independents slightly more negative than positive. Democrats' confidence has barely recovered since April, while independents and Republicans have shown significant improvement. Republican confidence has recovered the most but is still not back to prepandemic levels. Independents are mostly responsible for the overall increase in confidence in the past month.

Most Other Presidents Had Better Approval Ratings Than Trump Does Now

The 43.3% average job approval rating for Trump from mid-July to mid-August is lower than for most other elected presidents during their 15^th quarters in office. Carter and Bush both had lower ratings in the final months before their unsuccessful reelection bids. The other presidents -- all of whom won reelection -- had job 15^th-quarter averages closer to 50%.

	Dates of 15th quarter	Average approval rating	Number of polls
Trump	2020 Jul 20-Oct 19	43.3	4
Obama	2012 Jul 20-Oct 19	47.8	92
G.W. Bush	2004 Jul 20-Oct 19	50.2	10
Clinton	1996 Jul 20-Oct 19	56.9	8
G.H.W. Bush	1992 Jul 20-Oct 19	35.2	9
Reagan	1984 Jul 20-Oct 19	54.8	5
Carter	1980 Jul 20-Oct 19	34.5	2
Nixon	1972 Jul 20-Oct 19	n/a	0
Eisenhower	1956 Jul 20-Oct 19	68.0	1
麻豆传媒AV

Presidential job approval has been a reliable predictor of incumbent reelection success. Barack Obama's late October and early November ratings -- the earliest in his 16^th quarter -- were better than his 15^th-quarter ratings. He registered 52% approval at the time of the 2012 election. George W. Bush's ratings declined in late October 2004, and his approval rating was 48% when votes were cast, the lowest so far for an incumbent who won reelection.

Bottom Line

With the election looming, Americans continue to disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, express low levels of satisfaction with the way things are going in the country and rate the economy more negatively than positively. National satisfaction and economic confidence are slightly better than they were a month ago and significantly improved from their 2020 low points. While economic confidence is similar today to what it was in 2004 and 2012 -- years in which incumbents were reelected -- satisfaction and job approval are currently below the levels that have in the past been associated with successful reelection bids.

Explore President Trump's approval ratings and compare them with those of past presidents in the 麻豆传媒AV Presidential Job Approval Center.

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