LONDON -- Many of the same problems that led to the Labour Party’s landslide win in the British election in July are now theirs to solve. Â鶹´«Ã½AV data collected just before the election highlight four major challenges that Prime Minister Keir Starmer inherited from his predecessors.
1. New Government Needs to Restore Economic Hope
Much of the election campaign focused on the economy, growth and taxation. Leading up to Election Day, Britons were the gloomiest they had been about their economic futures since 2009, after the financial crash: 19% said their local economy was getting better, compared with 62% who said it was getting worse.
Previous Â鶹´«Ã½AV research from 2023 showed how Britons were among the most pessimistic in the OECD about their economy. They have grown even more pessimistic since. Although the Â鶹´«Ã½AV World Poll has not yet completed global data collection in 2024, no other OECD country has scored lower for economic optimism than the U.K. this year.
2. Reverse the Downward Trends in Satisfaction With Public Services
Britons have also grown increasingly dissatisfied with public services in recent years, particularly with the availability of quality healthcare. Satisfaction with healthcare has been falling steadily since 2011, the year after the Labour Party was last in office.
Between 2011 and 2023 globally, only Venezuela saw a bigger absolute decline in satisfaction with healthcare than the U.K. In 2024, Britons’ satisfaction with the availability of quality healthcare stands at 61%.
Satisfaction with British healthcare is faltering as the prevalence of poor health is rising. Since 2021, the proportion of the adult population suffering from health problems that prevent them from doing normal things for people their age has been consistently above 20%. In 2024, the figure stands at 25%, a level not seen for almost 20 years. Among those who report suffering from health problems, who are by extension most likely to need healthcare, satisfaction with healthcare falls significantly to 53%.
Satisfaction with the educational system and schools in the U.K. also took a hit in 2024. For the decade between 2014 and 2023, an average of 69% of Britons were satisfied with their educational system and schools. Satisfaction has fallen to 63% in 2024, on par with the lowest total measured since 2007.
Britain’s schools have been beset by challenges in recent years, including teacher shortages, strikes, crumbling buildings and the increasing burden of rising child poverty. If Starmer is to break down barriers to opportunity -- one of his missions for government -- tackling rising discontent with schools is a key place to begin.
3. Step Up Efforts to Protect the Environment
According to research from the University of Oxford, the U.K. is “one of the most nature-depleted countries in the world.” In recent years, the rate of sewage spills in the U.K.’s rivers and seas has also risen sharply and dominated headlines, leaving almost all of the country’s waterways polluted.
Against this backdrop, satisfaction with efforts to preserve the environment has also fallen. The decline in satisfaction started around a decade ago and reached a low point of 45% this year. More Britons are now dissatisfied than satisfied with environmental preservation efforts in their country.
4. Clarify the Future Relationship With Europe
Arguably the defining event in British politics over the past decade was the vote to leave the European Union in 2016 (Brexit). The referendum was followed by years of fractious negotiations that had huge implications for the composition of parliament and the fate of several conservative prime ministers.
Yet over the decade or so since 2013, when former Prime Minister David Cameron first announced his intention to hold a referendum, approval of the EU in the U.K. has doubled, from 29% that year to 59% in 2024.
Starmer has already promised leaders from across the continent that he will reset ties with their countries after years of tense relations. But despite promising to foster closer partnership with the EU, Starmer has also ruled out rejoining the single market or customs union in his lifetime and warned against reopening the Brexit debate.
Bottom Line
Starmer has had the keys to 10 Downing Street for less than two months. He is making “kickstarting the economy” his No. 1 mission, but Labour faces challenges beyond this. Starmer’s first major test in office was a week of public disorder after the killing of three young girls in the northern English town of Southport, which triggered widespread far-right riots targeting Muslims and migrants, resulting in more than 1,000 arrests. The violent disorder has since been quelled, but as members of Parliament return after summer recess, other challenges remain.
Â鶹´«Ã½AV trends show that in several respects, people think things are getting worse in Britain. The public is growing more pessimistic about the economy and less satisfied with key public services and the state of the environment. If Starmer’s landslide election win is to translate into a “decade of national renewal,” reversing these trends in public opinion will be crucial to his success.
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