WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Less than half of registered voters nationally have a positive view of Kamala Harris’ choice of Tim Walz to be her running mate or Donald Trump’s selection of JD Vance. A combined 46% rate Walz as either an “excellent” or “pretty good” choice, versus 41% for Vance.
Despite Walz’s slight lead on this measure, the vice presidential nominees who will face off Tuesday night in their one debate of the 2024 campaign are equally likely to be rated as “poor” choices. Just under four in 10 voters see each as such.
The latest “excellent/pretty good” evaluations of Harris’ and Trump’s vice presidential choices, from a Sept. 16-28 Â鶹´«Ã½AV poll, are on par with voters’ positive impressions of newly tapped vice presidential nominees in the prior two presidential campaigns. That includes 47% rating Harris positively when she was nominated as Joe Biden’s running mate in 2020, 45% for Tim Kaine when running with Hillary Clinton in 2016 and 43% for Mike Pence as Trump’s running mate in 2016.
By contrast, all vice presidential nominees measured between 2000 and 2012 earned positive scores from the majority of voters in Â鶹´«Ã½AV’s initial rating following their party’s convention, or after the presumptive presidential candidate named them, whichever occurred later.
That includes 55% for Dick Cheney and 53% for Joe Lieberman in 2000, 64% for John Edwards in 2004, 63% for Joe Biden and 60% for Sarah Palin in 2008, and 51% for Paul Ryan in 2012.
Although positive ratings of Walz and Vance are on par with other recent vice presidential nominees, they both have unusually high percentages considering them poor choices, at 38% and 39%, respectively. Only Harris’ 34% “poor” rating comes close in Â鶹´«Ã½AV’s initial post-convention readings.
The only vice presidential nominee since 2000 who was rated significantly worse after their convention than Walz and Vance are today was Palin, selected by John McCain as his running mate in 2008. However, her historically low “excellent/pretty good” score of 35% was measured at the very end of the campaign, reflecting whatever dings to her image had occurred along the way. In Â鶹´«Ã½AV’s initial post-convention reading on Palin that September, 60% of voters thought she was an excellent or pretty good pick, while 24% thought she was a poor choice.
Additionally, George H.W. Bush’s selection of Dan Quayle as his running mate in 1988 may have been received worse than Walz and Vance are today. A Louis Harris and Associates survey that year found Quayle rated as an excellent or pretty good choice by 44% of likely voters, with a combined 52% rating him as only fair or poor. However, the specific “poor” percentage was not reported, so it’s not possible to say what the full breadth of Quayle’s image was that year.
Vance’s Favorable Rating Ticks Up to Match Walz
Walz and Vance are nearly tied in favorability, with 38% of Americans having a favorable impression of Walz and 37% of Vance.
Walz’s favorable rating has changed little since Â鶹´«Ã½AV’s initial reading on him earlier this month, after he was nominated at the Democratic convention. At that time, 41% viewed him favorably and 40% unfavorably. By contrast, Vance’s reading has improved slightly as Americans have become more familiar with him -- rising from a 31% favorable rating in August, following the GOP convention, to 36% in early September and 37% today. His unfavorable rating has declined by four percentage points, but at 44% still exceeds his favorable rating.
Democrats More Positive About Walz Than Republicans Are About Vance
Partisans have mostly positive views of their own party’s vice presidential nominee and mostly negative views of the opposing party’s. However, Democrats’ acclaim for Walz is higher than Republicans’ is for Vance.
Overall, 87% of Democrats consider Walz an excellent or good choice for vice president, whereas 75% of Republicans say the same about Vance. Further, Walz earns a much higher “excellent” rating from his own party (56%) than Vance does from his (38%). And while 71% of Democrats and 74% of Republicans have a favorable impression of their own party’s vice presidential nominee, more Republicans (11%) than Democrats (4%) have an unfavorable view of theirs.
Independents are more likely to say Walz is an excellent or good vice presidential choice by Harris (42%) than to rate Trump’s selection of Vance positively (37%). However, they view the candidates similarly, with 34% having a favorable impression of Walz and 36% of Vance. More independents view each nominee unfavorably -- 41% for Walz and 43% for Vance.
While it’s unlikely the vice presidential debate will significantly change partisans’ favorable ratings of their party’s candidate, it could influence independents, particularly the quarter or so who currently don’t know enough about Walz (25%) or Vance (22%) to rate them.
Trump and Harris Also Tied in Favorability
The same poll also shows the presidential nominees tied in favorability -- Harris at 48% and Trump at 47%. Trump’s rating is similar to most of his readings since June, while Harris’ has improved markedly since then, when she was viewed favorably by 34%. That survey predated Biden withdrawing from the race and Harris becoming the Democratic nominee.
Harris’ unfavorable rating matches her favorable rating, while Trump’s unfavorable rating, 51%, is slightly higher than his favorable rating.
Bottom Line
In what has emerged as a neck-and-neck race for president between Harris and Trump, their running mates are not doing much to tip the scales. Both earn subpar ratings as vice presidential nominees, with Walz’s 46% “excellent/pretty good” score only slightly higher than Vance’s 41% and the two tied in favorable ratings.
Walz receives better reviews from Democrats than Vance does from Republicans for being a good choice as a running mate, but in terms of favorability, Democrats’ and Republicans’ overall impressions of their vice presidential candidate are nearly identical.
The nominees have an opportunity to make inroads with the roughly one-quarter of political independents who don’t know enough about each candidate to rate them. Whether that has any impact on the arc of the campaign more generally is another question.
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