WASHINGTON, D.C. -- With people on the move globally at unprecedented levels, Â鶹´«Ã½AV’s latest global migration data show people’s desire to leave their country remains higher than it was a decade ago. This is true in almost every part of the world, from traditionally migrant-sending regions like sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America to migrant-receiving regions like the U.S. and Canada.
In 2023, 16% of adults worldwide -- which projects to over 900 million people -- said they would like to leave their own country permanently, if they could. This is unchanged from levels observed between 2021 and 2022 but higher than the 12% to 15% measured between 2011 and 2018.
Â鶹´«Ã½AV’s latest update on adults’ desire to move to another country is based on a question it asks almost annually: “Ideally, if you had the opportunity, would you move permanently to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in this country?” The 2023 figures are based on interviews with nearly 146,000 adults in 142 countries and areas.
The analysis period coincides with record levels of migration after a slowdown during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to United Nations estimates. In the 38 wealthy countries that make up the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), permanent-type migration in 2022 reached unprecedented levels.
Desire Up Most in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the U.S. and Canada
More people -- almost everywhere -- want to migrate than they did over a decade ago, but some of the biggest increases have occurred in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, and the U.S. and Canada.
In Latin America, the 28% of the population that desires to migrate is down from a record-high 34% in 2021 and 2022, but it remains up 10 percentage points from the 18% who wanted to leave in 2011.
The decline is mostly attributable to fewer residents in Mexico, Nicaragua, Brazil, El Salvador, Colombia and Venezuela wanting to leave their country. However, desire to migrate remains at or just under 50% in Ecuador, Honduras and the Dominican Republic. Ecuador and Honduras are in the top 10 countries with the highest migration desire in the world.
Unlike Latin America, at the regional level, the desire to migrate in sub-Saharan Africa is not going down. The 37% of adults who desire to migrate -- which is the highest level in the world -- is one point higher than it was in 2021 and 2022 and eight points higher than the 29% who wanted to leave in 2011.
While it has declined across several countries in the region, the desire to migrate remains near or above the 50% mark in nine countries. Seven of them -- Liberia, Sierra Leone, Ghana, the Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, the Gambia and Comoros -- are in the top 10 countries with the highest migration desire worldwide.
Although the U.S. and Canada are the two top destinations for migrants, record-high numbers in these two countries want to permanently leave.
Desire to migrate has risen steadily in both countries since 2011 -- but most sharply in Canada, where the 20% who want to leave today is the highest on record and more than double the 8% who wanted to leave in 2011. Most of the increase in Canada has occurred since 2021.
In the U.S., the 17% who said they wanted to leave in 2023 statistically ties the previous record high (which appears to have been shattered in new polling from 2024 that shows 21% want to move) and is seven points higher than the 10% recorded in 2011.
Desire to migrate remains higher than it was in 2011 in all other regions of the world, with two key exceptions: the European Union and post-Soviet Eurasia. After some ebbs and flows over the past decade, the 20% in the EU and 13% in post-Soviet Eurasia who want to migrate permanently today are at or below their levels in 2011.
U.S. Still Top Desired Destination but Remains Less Attractive Today
The list of countries where potential migrants say they would like to move, if they could, has generally been the same since Â鶹´«Ã½AV started tracking these data in 2007, with the U.S. topping the list of the most desired destinations every year.
This was true in 2023 as well. Just under one in five potential migrants (18%) -- or about 170 million adults worldwide -- named the U.S. as their desired future residence. However, this figure remains down from where it was in all years leading up to 2017.
Although potential migrants might have cooled toward the U.S., real migration levels reached record highs in 2023 in both the U.S. and Canada, which was the No. 2 most desired destination for potential migrants. Â鶹´«Ã½AV data show that 9% of potential migrants -- or about 85 million people worldwide -- would like to relocate to Canada.
Implications
It’s important to note that Â鶹´«Ã½AV has found that the percentage of people worldwide who have plans to move is much lower than the percentage who would like to move. Desire to migrate is not the same as intent to move. Not everyone who wants to move can move, or ever will.
While Â鶹´«Ã½AV's findings reflect aspirations rather than intent, they suggest hundreds of millions are feeling pulled or pushed, for various reasons, toward countries other than their own. Who these potential migrants are, where they'd like to go, and why, will continue to be crucial for leaders in countries of origin and destination to understand as they develop migration and development strategies.
The key takeaway from the latest data is that increased desire to migrate is a phenomenon not only in migrant-sending regions but also in ones typically on the receiving end. While many of those receiving countries are focused on migrants coming in, they also need to be conscious that many of their own citizens would leave if they could -- and consider what that means and what could happen if they did.
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