LONDON -- At the one-year mark of Javier Milei’s presidency, Â鶹´«Ã½AV data show that his “shock treatment” appears to be working in terms of public opinion. Argentines feel more optimistic about the economy and more confident under Milei’s government.
However, many long-standing challenges remain, and people continue to struggle to meet basic needs and have a dim view of the current job market.
Economic Optimism Rises
Milei got to work quickly in his first year, introducing several policies aimed at reforming the Argentine economy and state. Central to his “shock treatment” were policies designed to tackle rampant inflation: devaluing the peso by 50%, cutting fuel subsidies and halving the number of government ministries.
Against this backdrop, Argentines are more optimistic about their economy than they have been in almost a decade. Four in 10 adults (41%) say their city’s economy is getting better, a significant increase from 25% in 2023. The percentage of Argentines who say their standard of living is getting better (53%) has inched above the majority level for the first time since 2015.
Long-Standing Material Challenges Remain
Milei’s new economic policies sent monthly inflation spiraling to over 25% in December 2023. But by August of this year -- coinciding with the timing of Â鶹´«Ã½AV’s survey -- it had fallen to 3.9%. Still, annual inflation remains over 200%, the highest in the world, and poverty rates have surged amid Milei’s strict austerity program.
Even though economic optimism is relatively high, over a third of Argentines (35%) continue to struggle to afford food, and over two-thirds (69%) think it is a bad time to find a job. Both figures are broadly in line with the averages over the past decade.
These perceptions are gloomy -- not only relative to the long-term trend in Argentina, but also to other global economies. After a few days as president, Milei sent a letter to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) formally requesting to start accession talks. But among the other OECD countries Â鶹´«Ã½AV has surveyed in 2024, no other country scores higher than Argentina for inability to afford food and perceptions that now is a bad time to find a job.
While the inability to afford food is more widespread in many other Latin American and Caribbean countries, none are gloomier about their job prospects than Argentina.
Confidence in Government Almost Doubles, but Only a Minority Express Faith
In 2023, the last year of former President Alberto Fernandez’s tenure, confidence in the national government stood at 24%, essentially tying the previous record low for the country and among the 10 lowest scores for government confidence worldwide. Since Milei came to power, confidence in his new government has risen sharply to 43%, but a majority still lack faith in their leadership.
The increase in Argentines’ confidence in their government under Milei is almost identical to the boost seen under Alberto Fernandez, who came to power in December 2019. In 2020, during the first year of his term, confidence in the national government grew to 43% from 27% the year before. The challenge for Milei’s government will be to keep the public’s faith -- something his predecessor could not.
Richest Argentines Most Approving of Milei
Milei’s first personal approval rating is 48%, compared with 18% in Fernandez’s final year in office. Notably, Fernandez achieved a higher approval rating than Milei in his first year in office (56% in 2020).
Milei’s support base looks much different than his predecessor’s. Even though Argentines from all household income groups are more approving of Milei in 2024 than Fernandez in 2023, Milei has more fans among the wealthiest Argentines. Among the richest 20% in Argentina, approval was 8% under Fernandez versus 59% for Milei, compared with 30% and 39%, respectively, among the poorest 20%.
Over the past decade, no other country has seen such a sharp increase in approval ratings among the richest 20%, relative to the poorest 20%, when a new leader has come to power. Milei stands alone in how unequal his first-year surge in popularity has been along household income lines.
That said, Argentina’s past four presidents have seen fluctuating support among the richest and poorest in society. Until 2015, former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner saw consistently higher approval ratings among the poorest 20% than the richest. This reversed under her successor, Mauricio Macri, and again under Fernandez.
Bottom Line
Milei’s free-market reforms have sought to rebalance Argentina’s crisis-hit economy and balance the government’s books. During his first year in office, Argentines have grown more positive about their economic future and living standards. They have also regained a large amount of lost confidence in their government. Milei has taken a prominent role on the global stage as the first foreign leader to visit President-elect Donald Trump since the U.S. election.
However, long-standing challenges in Argentina’s crisis-hit economy -- such as inability to afford food -- persist. A decisive majority continue to view the job market negatively.
Like presidents before him, Milei has seen a boost in personal approval ratings relative to his predecessor, particularly among the richest Argentines. Yet, both Macri and Fernandez saw notable declines in their personal approval ratings in their second year in office. The challenge for Milei will be to ensure voters stay with him.
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